I have no doubt Ukrainians are taking losses , but no one here knows to what extent . Ukraine are following opsec strictly at the moment and not releasing any information . The only sources giving info out at the moment are pro Russian . Not exactly a reliable source
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Grads wake up call. The female voice t the end on the intercom is Tank Girl giving the order to breach (I'm told).
I wouldn't want to be on the other end of that lot.
I wouldn't want to be on the other end of that lot.
BoroMart
Well-known member
Think I counted 36 per truck, so 144 missiles, wow, where ever they are aimed is going to take a lot of damage.
italianjob
Well-known member
How are they targeted/aimed?? Is the target all concentrated in one spot?
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
Ukraine seem to have released a fair bit of footage today and over the past 24 hours.
I think they have been trying to counter Russia in the digital war alongside the physical war, for a few days it was just Russian bots and propaganda about Ukraine's losses.
I think they have been trying to counter Russia in the digital war alongside the physical war, for a few days it was just Russian bots and propaganda about Ukraine's losses.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
Linthorpe_Exile
Well-known member
Some very interesting analysis in the Graun: What lies behind Russia's acts.....
Ok, just had a long conversation with my mate after days of near silence. Now I know why. He has been dragging his sorry middle aged **** through a specific training exercise with much younger men.
His un-resigning will hopefully not affect our project, but there's a high risk that he'll be killed .... knowing what he has been training for. And that would not be helpful at all.
I think he may even be regretting it.
Anyway, it is one specific mission. I hope it doesn't have to happen. I really do.
You might be able to join the dots from some of my recent posts, but I can obviously not say any more (he didn't tell me, I worked it out). When I worked it out, he did tell me what his part would be. All I can say is.... he's mental.
His un-resigning will hopefully not affect our project, but there's a high risk that he'll be killed .... knowing what he has been training for. And that would not be helpful at all.
I think he may even be regretting it.
Anyway, it is one specific mission. I hope it doesn't have to happen. I really do.
You might be able to join the dots from some of my recent posts, but I can obviously not say any more (he didn't tell me, I worked it out). When I worked it out, he did tell me what his part would be. All I can say is.... he's mental.
Last edited:
Don't be too alarmed, he;s talking worst scenario ...
"Private health announcement...
I recommend everyone to quietly get hold of IODIDE (not iodine) tablets.
If they are needed later on they will be **** impossible to source for most people.
So, as a precaution, make certain that you have a stash for you and your loved ones (especially for the Europeans).
It is especially important for anyone of the age where baby-making is an option.
Anyhoo's, I have been spending my weekend in my new and spiffing greens that are not green as such.
I have picked up a couple of new interesting patches, and I to the amusement of everyone had my NAFO-patch on.
Being 50+ and somewhat chubby and trying to keep up with some of the most well trained soldiers on Earth for 3 days was pure agony.
There is not a muscle in my body that is not screaming in pain...
Anyway, I am now on official alert of 4 hours to wheels up, the unit will continue training until the mission is scrapped or we fly out.
I have it at 50/50.
I will give a brief update on the situation in Ukraine, and then go a tad political.
Bilhorod
RFL is still in Bilhorod, and has somehow found a second wind and are spreading out their holdings along the border.
Basically at this point they meander up to a defence position at the border, say "Boo!" and half of them surrender, and the other half run away.
The conscrips know that if they try to resist a couple of hundred artillery shells will land on their heads post haste.
What I find amasing is that there are no new troops of higher quality arriving to secure the Russian border.
If this continue for a couple of months the Russian effective border along all 3 Northern Oblasts (counted from Ukraine) will have had their border moved 20km northwards.
Bakhmut
On the Northern side Ukraine has made substantial advances now, that will become visible in 2-3 days.
On this side Bakhmut is in tactical semi-encirclement.
They are also nearing Soledar again and are not far from the closest entrances to the salt mines.
On the Southern side the Russians have crossed the river/canal and taken Andrivka on the other side of Klichi'ivka.
Most Russians are now gone from the Fortress, but sporadic fighting is going on.
Russia is now desperately pulling in forces from all over Luhansk and Donetsk to reinforce Bakhmut.
It does not seem to work out for them.
Kakhovka/Vuhledar Front
The news are reporting now that the Ukrainians have breached the first line at 3 places (it was actually for 3 days ago)...
Currently they have crossed the second line at 3 places, and are moving forward, the first line is no more, at almost all places the Russians have fallen back to the second or third line along the entire front to not get encircled and mulched.
Few units have been fighting hard after the initial 36 hours.
Basically they are totally demoralised after seeing what is coming for them, and noting that they are totally undermaned and underequiped against the Ukrainians.
This means that the entire front has fallen back between 5 and 20km with numerous liberated villages.
Up until this point it had been done with numerous smaller forces operating at company or a few companies strength.
But, this morning one of the big units finally got moving, so expect a Thunder Run at an undisclosed position.
It opened up with the usual GRAD-greeting crushing the defence line.
Somehow she got her GRADs to fire at twice the regular speed to increase the effect of everything going boom at the same time. I do not know if she used vaseline or fiddled with the electronics, or just plain inserted a turbo somehow...
The effect is spectacular.
The voice at the end is our favourite Tank Girl giving the go ahead for the breach at the front.
The tank fists will hit within a minute of the last rocket landing to not give the Russians any chance of getting themselves together.
After they are through, Thunder Run.
(12) Sander on Twitter: "Morning alarm clock for Russian b***ds. https://t.co/59mb8vK21R https://t.co/Hpfy8xKfvp" / Twitter
Kakhovka
Pundits are now talking about the possibility of going across the new dry land by fording the narrow returning river where the dam lake used to be.
This is just a ridiculous idea, there are metres of silt and mud there, and it would take months for it to dry up, but most likely it will turn into marshland since there was marshes there previously...
So, there is no chance of crossing on fot or track there.
Same goes also for crossing down south into Kherson in the next month.
ZNPP
Without saying to much, Ukraine has asked for assistance.
It is now clear that Russia is completely insane, and willing to do anything.
And now everyone is seriously contemplating that Russia will blow up the Zhaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
We do know that it is mined and set to explode.
The first option is political.
This is why Olaf Scholtz will call "Putin" to try to talk sense into him in regards of the ZNPP, he will inform Russia that setting off the charges will be seen as if Russia had used a nuke, and that nuclear retribution will be used in that case.
It is believed that having Olaf inform them about this will be received "better".
The second option is more sneaky and cloak/dagger to say it out loud.
What exactly these plans entail I can not say.
But, they are not unreasonably impossible, I have hope in this department.
Third option is to storm the place.
Ukraine are though a bit occupied, and they just do not have troops specialised in this kind of special operations.
Normally it would be the French doing this, they after all have a special force for just this, but France is not inclined to do it due to being NATO-members.
It would either require a UN mandate (and that will not happen), or NATO doing an Article 5 prior to the event, and that is not yet decided.
So, for the time being another country with NATO-affiliation but not membership is prepping for it.
Obviously that would be the absolute last resort, and with only a 50 percent chance of succeeding since there are 6 reactors to secure.
Power Struggle
Yesterday the power struggle between PMC Wagner and the MOD reached a new height.
It began with Shoigu ordering that all PMC soldiers have until the last of June to sign contracts with the Russian Army or disarm and disband.
From the First of July there will be no PMCs in Russia.
Obviously this did not go down well with Wagner and Prigozhing.
So, they issued a statement that very calmly informed Shoigu that he could blow his nose on his balls.
Ie., that they would not submit.
And then they followed up by stating a real shocker.
PMC Wagner will from now on only follow the orders of General Surovikin from the Russian Army side.
Remember that months ago I said that sooner or later Surovikin would turn on Moscow?
Well, it is now official.
The regular troops would follow him if he took control, and not Gerasimov, we know that.
So, in a single sentence Prigozhin kicked the feet from under the MOD and promised to take away their army.
Prigozhin obviously knows that if Surovikin takes over his shot at taking over Russia is gone, there is no resemblence between the current clowns and Surovikin, and he knows he would have to follow Surovikins orders completely and without any tomfoolery.
The first big guy just stepped out of the woordworks, there is no way in hell that Prigozhin would have dared to use his name without permission.
We see a lot of training exercises being performed at the Wagner bases in Russia, and there are a lot of new troops visible that has been trained there behind the lines.
Our estimates are that currently Wagner has 30 000 troops ready to go, and fairly well equipped at that.
We now have a deadline until the Civil War in Russia starts, and that is at 12 at night on the 30th of June, if not earlier.
It is believed that Shoigu has signed an arrest order for Prigozhin, and maybe Surovikin.
And we can see Wagner moving into defensive positions at their bases.
Surovikin has gathered loyal troops around him in Rostov from the air defence force and the nuclear bomb force.
It is sort of reassuring at least that it is Surovikin that is formally in control of the nukes.
He is a homocidal maniac, but he is utterly rational, and will not use them.
Vilnius
July 11-12 will probably go down into history.
Due to Russia no longer being a mentally stable opponent action must be taken.
More weapons will definitely be allocated, that is now a given.
There will be no bars any longer on what is given.
Air policing is being discussed.
But, the big one is that there are now open talks about sending in boots on the ground in Ukraine.
It would as such be patrolling and securing Ukrainian held territory and borders, but no direct involvement in the war otherwise.
This may sound like it is not a lot, but the effect is astounding.
Ukraine is currently holding large well equiped units towards the borders of Belorussia, Russia and Transnistria.
There are also secondary units all over Ukraine guarding pretty much everything.
So, in one swoop Ukraine would have more than double the amount of forces available for offensive action.
It would also move the responsibility for the Air Defence to NATO, freeing up the current setups for frontline duty.
And, Ukraine would no longer need to cover their own airspace with fighters, freeing those to for frontline operations.
It would obviously be a really big effort, something along the region of 250 000 soldiers, plus air force and navy units.
There has never been even remotely a peace keeping mission of this size in human history, so the political hurdles are dauting.
At worst it may "just" be a coallition of the willing, but even that would free up huge amounts of Ukrainians for other duties.
At a minimum that would be enough to hold the border against Transnistria and Belarus, and every square inch west of Dnipro.
I do though hope for the full option, this would end the war and give a decisive victory within weeks, not months.
But, who knows, by then there is a high likelihood of Russia being at a shooting war with itself.
"Private health announcement...
I recommend everyone to quietly get hold of IODIDE (not iodine) tablets.
If they are needed later on they will be **** impossible to source for most people.
So, as a precaution, make certain that you have a stash for you and your loved ones (especially for the Europeans).
It is especially important for anyone of the age where baby-making is an option.
Anyhoo's, I have been spending my weekend in my new and spiffing greens that are not green as such.
I have picked up a couple of new interesting patches, and I to the amusement of everyone had my NAFO-patch on.
Being 50+ and somewhat chubby and trying to keep up with some of the most well trained soldiers on Earth for 3 days was pure agony.
There is not a muscle in my body that is not screaming in pain...
Anyway, I am now on official alert of 4 hours to wheels up, the unit will continue training until the mission is scrapped or we fly out.
I have it at 50/50.
I will give a brief update on the situation in Ukraine, and then go a tad political.
Bilhorod
RFL is still in Bilhorod, and has somehow found a second wind and are spreading out their holdings along the border.
Basically at this point they meander up to a defence position at the border, say "Boo!" and half of them surrender, and the other half run away.
The conscrips know that if they try to resist a couple of hundred artillery shells will land on their heads post haste.
What I find amasing is that there are no new troops of higher quality arriving to secure the Russian border.
If this continue for a couple of months the Russian effective border along all 3 Northern Oblasts (counted from Ukraine) will have had their border moved 20km northwards.
Bakhmut
On the Northern side Ukraine has made substantial advances now, that will become visible in 2-3 days.
On this side Bakhmut is in tactical semi-encirclement.
They are also nearing Soledar again and are not far from the closest entrances to the salt mines.
On the Southern side the Russians have crossed the river/canal and taken Andrivka on the other side of Klichi'ivka.
Most Russians are now gone from the Fortress, but sporadic fighting is going on.
Russia is now desperately pulling in forces from all over Luhansk and Donetsk to reinforce Bakhmut.
It does not seem to work out for them.
Kakhovka/Vuhledar Front
The news are reporting now that the Ukrainians have breached the first line at 3 places (it was actually for 3 days ago)...
Currently they have crossed the second line at 3 places, and are moving forward, the first line is no more, at almost all places the Russians have fallen back to the second or third line along the entire front to not get encircled and mulched.
Few units have been fighting hard after the initial 36 hours.
Basically they are totally demoralised after seeing what is coming for them, and noting that they are totally undermaned and underequiped against the Ukrainians.
This means that the entire front has fallen back between 5 and 20km with numerous liberated villages.
Up until this point it had been done with numerous smaller forces operating at company or a few companies strength.
But, this morning one of the big units finally got moving, so expect a Thunder Run at an undisclosed position.
It opened up with the usual GRAD-greeting crushing the defence line.
Somehow she got her GRADs to fire at twice the regular speed to increase the effect of everything going boom at the same time. I do not know if she used vaseline or fiddled with the electronics, or just plain inserted a turbo somehow...
The effect is spectacular.
The voice at the end is our favourite Tank Girl giving the go ahead for the breach at the front.
The tank fists will hit within a minute of the last rocket landing to not give the Russians any chance of getting themselves together.
After they are through, Thunder Run.
(12) Sander on Twitter: "Morning alarm clock for Russian b***ds. https://t.co/59mb8vK21R https://t.co/Hpfy8xKfvp" / Twitter
Kakhovka
Pundits are now talking about the possibility of going across the new dry land by fording the narrow returning river where the dam lake used to be.
This is just a ridiculous idea, there are metres of silt and mud there, and it would take months for it to dry up, but most likely it will turn into marshland since there was marshes there previously...
So, there is no chance of crossing on fot or track there.
Same goes also for crossing down south into Kherson in the next month.
ZNPP
Without saying to much, Ukraine has asked for assistance.
It is now clear that Russia is completely insane, and willing to do anything.
And now everyone is seriously contemplating that Russia will blow up the Zhaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
We do know that it is mined and set to explode.
The first option is political.
This is why Olaf Scholtz will call "Putin" to try to talk sense into him in regards of the ZNPP, he will inform Russia that setting off the charges will be seen as if Russia had used a nuke, and that nuclear retribution will be used in that case.
It is believed that having Olaf inform them about this will be received "better".
The second option is more sneaky and cloak/dagger to say it out loud.
What exactly these plans entail I can not say.
But, they are not unreasonably impossible, I have hope in this department.
Third option is to storm the place.
Ukraine are though a bit occupied, and they just do not have troops specialised in this kind of special operations.
Normally it would be the French doing this, they after all have a special force for just this, but France is not inclined to do it due to being NATO-members.
It would either require a UN mandate (and that will not happen), or NATO doing an Article 5 prior to the event, and that is not yet decided.
So, for the time being another country with NATO-affiliation but not membership is prepping for it.
Obviously that would be the absolute last resort, and with only a 50 percent chance of succeeding since there are 6 reactors to secure.
Power Struggle
Yesterday the power struggle between PMC Wagner and the MOD reached a new height.
It began with Shoigu ordering that all PMC soldiers have until the last of June to sign contracts with the Russian Army or disarm and disband.
From the First of July there will be no PMCs in Russia.
Obviously this did not go down well with Wagner and Prigozhing.
So, they issued a statement that very calmly informed Shoigu that he could blow his nose on his balls.
Ie., that they would not submit.
And then they followed up by stating a real shocker.
PMC Wagner will from now on only follow the orders of General Surovikin from the Russian Army side.
Remember that months ago I said that sooner or later Surovikin would turn on Moscow?
Well, it is now official.
The regular troops would follow him if he took control, and not Gerasimov, we know that.
So, in a single sentence Prigozhin kicked the feet from under the MOD and promised to take away their army.
Prigozhin obviously knows that if Surovikin takes over his shot at taking over Russia is gone, there is no resemblence between the current clowns and Surovikin, and he knows he would have to follow Surovikins orders completely and without any tomfoolery.
The first big guy just stepped out of the woordworks, there is no way in hell that Prigozhin would have dared to use his name without permission.
We see a lot of training exercises being performed at the Wagner bases in Russia, and there are a lot of new troops visible that has been trained there behind the lines.
Our estimates are that currently Wagner has 30 000 troops ready to go, and fairly well equipped at that.
We now have a deadline until the Civil War in Russia starts, and that is at 12 at night on the 30th of June, if not earlier.
It is believed that Shoigu has signed an arrest order for Prigozhin, and maybe Surovikin.
And we can see Wagner moving into defensive positions at their bases.
Surovikin has gathered loyal troops around him in Rostov from the air defence force and the nuclear bomb force.
It is sort of reassuring at least that it is Surovikin that is formally in control of the nukes.
He is a homocidal maniac, but he is utterly rational, and will not use them.
Vilnius
July 11-12 will probably go down into history.
Due to Russia no longer being a mentally stable opponent action must be taken.
More weapons will definitely be allocated, that is now a given.
There will be no bars any longer on what is given.
Air policing is being discussed.
But, the big one is that there are now open talks about sending in boots on the ground in Ukraine.
It would as such be patrolling and securing Ukrainian held territory and borders, but no direct involvement in the war otherwise.
This may sound like it is not a lot, but the effect is astounding.
Ukraine is currently holding large well equiped units towards the borders of Belorussia, Russia and Transnistria.
There are also secondary units all over Ukraine guarding pretty much everything.
So, in one swoop Ukraine would have more than double the amount of forces available for offensive action.
It would also move the responsibility for the Air Defence to NATO, freeing up the current setups for frontline duty.
And, Ukraine would no longer need to cover their own airspace with fighters, freeing those to for frontline operations.
It would obviously be a really big effort, something along the region of 250 000 soldiers, plus air force and navy units.
There has never been even remotely a peace keeping mission of this size in human history, so the political hurdles are dauting.
At worst it may "just" be a coallition of the willing, but even that would free up huge amounts of Ukrainians for other duties.
At a minimum that would be enough to hold the border against Transnistria and Belarus, and every square inch west of Dnipro.
I do though hope for the full option, this would end the war and give a decisive victory within weeks, not months.
But, who knows, by then there is a high likelihood of Russia being at a shooting war with itself.
Defender 4x4
Well-known member
Cannot believe the Kerch Strait Bridge is still standing.
I think left open as an exit route.
So another post from your mate this time it's 'get iodide not iodine'... Can he just tell me where's target 1-10 so I can try and get as close in the 5 minutes I'll get as possible.
He says Russia has gone insane, what about your mate has he gone insane @borolad259 ? Where was the question time debate on shall we have a cheeky nuclear war if needed for Ukraine?
He says Russia has gone insane, what about your mate has he gone insane @borolad259 ? Where was the question time debate on shall we have a cheeky nuclear war if needed for Ukraine?
Defender 4x4
Well-known member
An exit route for who, ? Does it allow Russians to escape back to Russia. ?
There's a nuclear power plant that is under the control of Russians. So it's not nuclear war. Chill your beans a bit.
This is my take on it. Let them get out of there. The Ukraine have generally tried to protect the civilian population. Also, the more Russians leave, the better.
Defender 4x4
Well-known member
Similar to the Falise Pocket blow the bridge with the Russian on this side of it and then wipe them out.
Wouln't know ... not a student of military history. Civilians getting away first would be a good thing.
Defender 4x4
Well-known member
Totally agree but what percentage of those civilians are Russian military.
Doesn't matter. If they go, even better.