Ok, a sharp left turn
"On Tuesday the price cap on Russian oil went into action.
It was expected that over the week the Russian oil sales per BBL would drop 15% and then get back up to -10% later on and hold there.
As such, significant hit to the Russian war economy.
What happened was quite unexpected.
On Tuesday trade per BBL dropped 15 percent, and today oil trade was down by 48 percent at 1700CET.
This is with a 30 percent increase in sales to China. The Chinese sales will not go up further due to tankerage being afraid to be hit by EU, so oil to China can only travel by chinese and russian tankers that are insured in russia and china. The Indians will not use their tankers due to them not wanting to beef with the EU.
On top of that the entire western world and most other countries cancelled their contracts, only China and India remain.
The cancellations was done last minute, in one case minutes prior to loading.
This has caused a drastic overflow portside of oil.
The storage ran out almost immediately and Russia had to turn off pumping from source, something that damages pipelines, pumps, wells...
Apparently Russia had not calculated the effects correctly, but nor had even trading houses and other experts.
Hardest hit is obviously Gunvor Oil that might have to foreclose.
Next knock on effect was that China and India forced even larger discounts on Russian oil pushing so hard that some ships leave port substantially below the 60USD per barrel price cap.
Ouch.
Conservatively Russia has now lost 50 percent of its foreign income from the levels on Monday this week, and since January 2022 a whopping 80 percent.
Just this week the total economy loss is at 25 percent, and 60 percent in total since January 2022.
We do not need to say that this will probably be what crushes the camels back.
Consequences
Within the next 3 months Russia will have to lay off half a million people working in its oversized hydrocarbon industry.
The loss of revenue will over the next 6 months cause another 1-2 million in lost jobs.
Russian liquidity will be gone in 1 month, after that it is printing new money to keep the wheels turning in Russia.
It is so bad that Russia is now heading for an internal bancrupcy.
Something unheard of outside of a couple of banana republics that had to switch to dollar to survive.
Longterm damages to the Russian oil economy will be severe, both in destroyed equipment and in lost trade that will not come back.
Even without the ongoing switch to green energy, it would take up to 2 decades for Russia to get their trade in hydrocarbons back up.
The European Union almost by mistake dealt Russia a Kherson sized defeat with the Oil Cap.
And even if Russia get the trade up a bit after a while, all the EU need to do is to turn the dial another step on the price cap, and down another step Russia falls.
It was Murder by Numbers again.
Someone did a Draughtsman's Contract on Russia
Drunk Putin
One of Putin's body doubles have an obvious drinking problem.
The real Putin quit drinking after an unfortunate accident at a New York art gallery where he accidentally stole a piece of art, a Kalashnikov that had been gilded and turned into a lamp.
He was so drunk that he just stumbled out with it and was driven off.
The day after the art gallery called the Embassy and they had to come and pay the darn thing...
Putin did not like to lose face, and he has not drunk a drop since, not that he drank a lot before.
The lamp night was the only known time of him being drunk, at best he had a beer or two prior to that.
Putin after all hates to not be in control.
Even when photographed with a glas of wine on the table it is cherry juice.
So, not only is the nose cartilage completely different on the drunk "Putin" that swayed arhythmically with a glas of champer's in hand while sluring on camera, he is also a drunkard.
And then we had giggly "Putin", aka Upears, today where he could not even keep a straight face while claiming that everything was going according to plan infront of a crowd.
The remarkable thing is that those two "Putins" said two diametrically different things.
It is like different factions have grabed a Putin each, and trust me, even the most daft Russian Babushka is noticing that "Putin" is behaving extremely strangely now, and even appearing at two places at the same time...
The only thing that would make it even more bizarre is if two or more "Putins" danced together on the Red Square.
Oh wait, this is Russia, of course it became even more bizarre in a heartbeat.
Ramblings on ****
Imagine a room in the Kremlin, in it you find Peskov, Lavrov, Medvedev and Patrushev. With them are Soyghurt, Gerasimov, and a few other generals in their finest uniforms.
They are all bent over a piece of paper frantically writing on a press release of utmost importance.
Late at night with dishevelled hair they have finnished their magnum opus, it is with a sigh of relief and a feeling of things finally being solved forever.
It is sent out express to news rooms across the Globe.
In the morning the entire world reads the following important missive from All of the Russias printed on the finest linen-pressed paper money can buy:
"President Vladimir Putin did not soil himself in his apartment in Moscow."
You just can't make this **** up.
How on Earth could they believe that this was a good idea.
The news about him falling on his ass and shiting himself in his apartment in Moscow was a spoof news that nobody believed in, especially in any professional circles.
First of all, such news would not come out like that.
Secondly, he has not left Sochii in the last two months, for obvious reasons.
But, then there is the meme that "nothing is true until Russia denies it".
So, now we know that in some way or another Putin shat himself, or at least that is the effect of their missive.
One does not simply deny stuff like that.
In other words the numbers are both up and s***y for Putin."
