What do Thursday's results indicate for the election?

[Lottowyn]

What do Thursdays results mean you ask ?

Easy, Labour will win by a street. Unless they keep sending Anneliese Dodds out on TV and ruin peoples breakfasts.

 

[Ex Footy Legs]

The Blackpool South by-election was the eye opener for me. Been Tory for most of its existence, yet Labour polled more votes this week than Conservatives and Reform combined.

This is more of an example of the mood of the country.
To the OP ; lots of labour voters don’t vote in local elections or vote for candidates other than Labour. Green or independent.

The election - at the moment - because things can change by the time this Cnut calls an election - will be either a healthy majority for Labour or a huge majority.

The Tories have no chance but Sunak is pushing the bbc projection of a hung parliament because it is convenient for him to save his skin.

The bbc projection is based upon the same turnout and same behaviour by voters in a GE. Basically worthless but a lifesaver for the Tories or an essential distraction.

Its simplified because Gaza could be a factor in reducing the labour vote but I don’t see it being a major factor.

There’s your summary

 

[Nero]

Most people can surely see for themselves that change is deliberately needed. The Tories have been shocking since 2010 and progressively got worse.

I don’t think it’s quite a 1997 mauling for the ***** but Labour will get in.

 

[morrissey]

I read something similar, and it suggested Sadiq Khan as Starmer's replacement.

God I hope not.
The stand-out for me is Andy Burnham, towers over Starmer and the rest.

 

[Frozen Horse]

I see the talk of a hung parliament as a good thing.

The biggest threat to Labour is complacency. It will be important for Labour to get their silent majority to the polling stations, and that's far more likely to happen if an overall majority is portrayed as guaranteed.

 

[h_m_boro]

God I hope not.
The stand-out for me is Andy Burnham, towers over Starmer and the rest.

Even down here in a Labour area there are a lot of people who don't like him, what's he done, useless etc etc etc.

Being objective, he has done little to eradicate the homeless problem in Manchester despite it being a top priority, and a bold promise to do so. It's actually getting worse.......

Not even an MP so needs to be parachuted into a safe seat first.

I like Burnham, personally think he would make a good PM.......as for towering over Starmer, doesn't take much really.......

 

[Laughing]

I thought you folks may be interested in the betfair odds at the next election. I have included the overall majority odds for each party and the betting on how many seats the tories will loose. It makes for interesting reading. It is odds on that the tories will loose more than 200 seats. I also included the betting for the number of seats the tories win. The favourite range is 50 to 200 seats. The implied chance is over 70% that the tories win between 50 and 200 seats.

Above 200 seats the tories implied chance falls off a cliff at about 18%.

The chance of the tories winning less than 50 seats is also unlikely at about 10%

 

[jeff_potato]

The Times are saying they've now shelved plans for a summer election, so presumably things were worse than the Tories were expecting.

Gutted we have to suffer another half of year of these d***heads.

I think that at this point they are simply crossing their fingers for one of those major events that the public don't see coming: Covid, Ukraine, etc. where they can get out the dressing up box and pretend to be grown-ups who you can trust.

I hope against hope that the next six months are peaceful in every sense for our country because they will only have their boats and magic plan to rattle on about when we can eventually get to have the election.

 

[Laughing]

I for one can't wait to see if Sunak has leaving the echr in the tory manifesto. That will be a watershed low point for the UK and I would hope the press would gut sunak for suggesting it.

 

[LessoftheLip]

The third major point was that if the Labour majority is as much as some are predicting then Stamer is a dead man walking and will be ousted in 6-12 months to be replaced by someone significantly further to the left.

Not sure I subscribe to this really and for many reasons. If you listen to Momentum pundits (including a few on here) Labour won't even have any left wing MPs after the next GE. But if they do, the conspiracy theorists who claim Starmer is purging all left wing voices from the LP will need to find something else to bleat about. So who would challenge Starmer and where would they expect to get their support from? After 15 years in opposition it would be political suicide to even attempt to ditch the incumbent. But nothing would surprise me about those with an axe to grind.

Then this talk about Sadiq and Burnham. They'd be less than one year into their Mayoral terms. They're not MPs so can't come to the House of Parliament. So how does it work, will a Labour MP be bumped off to force a by-election? It's crazy talk.

 

[JackG]

I for one can't wait to see if Sunak has leaving the echr in the tory manifesto. That will be a watershed low point for the UK and I would hope the press would gut sunak for suggesting it.

The Mail, Express, and Telegraph would roar him on. Most of their readers already think the ECHR provides the dinghies.

 

[masquesmog]

Then this talk about Sadiq and Burnham. They'd be less than one year into their Mayoral terms. They're not MPs so can't come to the House of Parliament. So how does it work, will a Labour MP be bumped off to force a by-election? It's crazy talk.

Labour haven't won many GEs, but when have they ever come even close to dumping the leader after one of these rare victories? The only situation I can think of is when Wilson resigned. But wasn't it later revealed that he had been diagnosed with dementia?

Replacing Starmer after a GE victory? As you say, crazy talk.

 

[Ziggy]

Health
Education
Cost of Living
Transport
Pensions
Inflation
Etc.
Any question asked on any subject of any Tory in the lead up to, and during elections.
Will have this reply.
“We are going to stop the boats”

 

[Ziggy]

Not sure I subscribe to this really and for many reasons. If you listen to Momentum pundits (including a few on here) Labour won't even have any left wing MPs after the next GE. But if they do, the conspiracy theorists who claim Starmer is purging all left wing voices from the LP will need to find something else to bleat about. So who would challenge Starmer and where would they expect to get their support from? After 15 years in opposition it would be political suicide to even attempt to ditch the incumbent. But nothing would surprise me about those with an axe to grind.

Then this talk about Sadiq and Burnham. They'd be less than one year into their Mayoral terms. They're not MPs so can't come to the House of Parliament. So how does it work, will a Labour MP be bumped off to force a by-election? It's crazy talk.

Control the NEC and it goes a long way to controlling the party.
He started making his moves early on.

Keir Starmer wins change in Labour NEC election rules

Single transferable vote will apply to CLP section, which represents grassroots members

www.theguardian.com

 

[Laughing]

The Mail, Express, and Telegraph would roar him on. Most of their readers already think the ECHR provides the dinghies.

Of its in the manifesto it becomes a talking point at debates. The tories won't be able to hide behind the telegraph

 

[Scrote]

Not sure I subscribe to this really and for many reasons. If you listen to Momentum pundits (including a few on here) Labour won't even have any left wing MPs after the next GE. But if they do, the conspiracy theorists who claim Starmer is purging all left wing voices from the LP will need to find something else to bleat about. So who would challenge Starmer and where would they expect to get their support from? After 15 years in opposition it would be political suicide to even attempt to ditch the incumbent. But nothing would surprise me about those with an axe to grind.

Talk about projection. It wasn't the left who derailed a democratically elected party leader from day one. It wasn't the left who conspired to create a completely fabricated crisis in order to discredit the party leader. It wasn't the left who deliberately sabotaged the last real chance of a Labour-led Parliament.

I agree that no-one will challenge Starmer. That's because there's no-one left to challenge Starmer. If it's the sort of politicking you're happy with then you're welcome to it, but don't 'bleat' when the Tories, Reform etc. do it better.

 

[Ziggy]

The Mail, Express, and Telegraph would roar him on. Most of their readers already think the ECHR provides the dinghies.

I subscribe more to Frankie Boyles take on the press.

“I don’t read newspapers anymore – I just lie to myself and cut out the middleman.”

— Frankie Boyle

 

[gregorgregorovich]

I saw a study this week pre Thursday's elections. Was predicting a significant Labour majority at GE.
The second point was about policies, and basically said whoever wins has no room for manoeuvre because the cupboard is bare and there's no spare money to implement policy changes. The conclusion from that was the only solution was tax rises, and as there's always a desire to get bad news out of the way early on in an election cycle they would be significant, but not before March 2025.
The third major point was that if the Labour majority is as much as some are predicting then Stamer is a dead man walking and will be ousted in 6-12 months to be replaced by someone significantly further to the left.

Not a chance Starmer will be ousted and replaced by someone significantly further to the left. For one thing, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel have ruled themselves out. Only joking LOTL.

 

[LessoftheLip]

It wasn't the left who conspired to create a completely fabricated crisis in order to discredit the party leader.

And there we have it. An unqualified denial that antisemitism flourished in the Labour Party on the watch of your man. I'm generally not surprised by a lot of antisemitic bile spouted on SM but to see it here is a new low for this forum.

If it's the sort of politicking you're happy with then you're welcome to it, but don't 'bleat' when the Tories, Reform etc. do it better.

Thanks, but I don't do bleating. I challenge instead. Bleating, which you've perfected, is the preserve of protest. Enjoy getting nowhere fast

 

[LessoftheLip]

Not a chance Starmer will be ousted and replaced by someone significantly further to the left. For one thing, Badenoch, Braverman and Patel have ruled themselves out. Only joking LOTL.

That's funny but remember you have a duty of care to the more gullible posters on the forum