Defender 4x4
Well-known member
It does, Dead soldiers do not fight tomorrow.
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Muttley
Well-known member
The plan as I see it is to give them a way out but no way they can get any/much military equipment out. You've created a huge bottleneck and more like Dunkirk than Falaise all the tanks, trucks etc. get left behind in a scramble to get over the bridge
xxlshirts_fit_all
Well-known member
If they’re trapped they’ll fight harder for survival…
let them leave and the Ukrainians can save ammo
Lefty
Well-known member
Worth a read to understand the difficulties each side has going forward.
www.csis.org
Ukraine’s Offensive Operations: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance
A new CSIS analysis concludes that Russian fortifications in Ukraine are the most extensive defensive works in Europe since World War II, but the Ukrainian military could effectively combine strategy, technology, and geography to retake territory seized by Russia.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
When was the last time Putin(or his body double) was seen or made a statement of any kind?
I have seen other russian top brass make statements but not Putin, surely with everything that's going on if he was in charge still then he would be all over the current events(counter offensive, the dam, freedom for Russia group,public internal arguments between Russian military factions).
I have seen other russian top brass make statements but not Putin, surely with everything that's going on if he was in charge still then he would be all over the current events(counter offensive, the dam, freedom for Russia group,public internal arguments between Russian military factions).
h_m_boro
Well-known member
It's a good point. Western media are still reporting as though Putin is alive and well and pulling the strings.......but in a dictatorship he wouldn't allow his minions to act like they are to the point of a civil war.
It's a crazy situation.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
That's exactly what I mean, Russia seems like a ship without a captain with the crew fighting amongst themselves for who will be the new captain, in the mean time the ship is heading towards rocks and the crew are too busy arguing amongst themselves that that they can't see the disaster ahead and it doesn't matter who will be captain, if the ship doesn't change direction soon it's going to sink.
xxlshirts_fit_all
Well-known member
Him and the Belarusian president made a statement about tac nukes being deployed there.. he was sat with him, they both looked well..
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
Hard to believe anything you read now about this strange war.
Things are hotting up internally.
Latest update ... but old news. Some speculation based upon knowledge.
"Ukraine is pushing back the release of confirmations to 7 days.
This is 2-5 days more than during previous engagements.
So, using a bit of Russian confirmations, and using the 3-5 day delay is good enough in OpSec.
This is the timeframe for todays update.
I can just say that Ukraine has pushed further since.
I will for once just note that Bilhorod Peoples Republic is still partially liberated, and the Russians seem to have given up on kicking them out, and that there are ongoing pushed in Bakhmut and other places.
Instead I will concentrate on the map below if I remember to attach it.
I will also do a bit on that column that ended up in trouble, since every single pundit get things wrong, or go hysterical demanding punishments and whatnots.
Makarivka
This is one of two location where Ukraine has made the largest gains (per today), the other is Vuhledar to Mariupol.
If we go from west to east and start at Levadne the battle there is over, what is not visible is that Ukraine has pushed to the hills and taken Pryvutne.
This had at the time taken Novodarivka and Rivnopil into a pocket, those where the largest Russian defences and Ukraine failed to take them head on, and Russian opened fire from 3 sides with artillery.
Ukraine had taken the two dark blue blotchy heights east of the river, and from there pushed south and took more heights.
This pushed the Russians out of Makarivka that is now confirmed (7 days after the fact).
Ukraine then pushed forward with artillery from the eastern heights and pushed out the Russians from two more settlements, one of them being Staromaiorske.
At the time for my voluntary information cutoff they had started storming Zavitne Bashannya and Oktyabr'ske.
On top of that Ukraine had widened the attack and pushed Russia out of Novodonet'ske and Novomaior'ske.
Ending up holding the Blue line for further pushes.
The blue line is generally where the second Russian line is, and at this location there is no other big fortification behind if you go towards Berdiansk and Mariupol, but large defences towards Melitopol.
Toward Melitopol from the frontline north to south there is the Zero-line at the old front, then there are 3 complete well fortified lines, plus separate fortifications at villages, and a large interconnecting north/south frontline East of Melitopol.
It is a very hard way to go.
This area has been reinforced by troops from Kherson, about a brigades worth.
I earlier told that Russia held back 3 well equipped and well-staffed brigades with combat veterans for use against the Ukrainians when they went on the offensive.
1 has peeled off and started to move towards Makarivka, and the other is moving to block over at Vuhledar.
Ukraine has cleared substantial amounts of Russian artillery, and what is left has severe shell-hunger.
This means that those Russian brigades will be almost completely out of artillery support, except for their own brigade artillery.
Ukraine then moved in an undisclosed over-sized brigade towards Makarivka with the order to squash that Russian brigade by any means possible.
It is the most heavily armed and most battle hardened oversized brigade in the Ukrainian army, it exists only to squish things, so it is a trap for the Russians, and with them are 2 mobile artillery battalion just for extra funzies.
One of those two battalions consist of western high precission artillery, and the other of the boonfangled new Super-GRADs that a certain someone is so enamoured with.
Over at Vuhledar two ordinary mech-brigades are ready for the Russians, and they also have mobile high-precission artillery at their beck and call, so yet another jolly trap.
Note, I am hear writing about what has happened, and that is well known by the Russians.
Even stupid Russian generals tend to notice when Brigades end up in deep creeks of filled with ****.
Columnal Issues
The Russian propagandists milked that a column consisting of a company of mechanized stormtroopers.
First rode a Russian tankroller, then came a Finnish Leopard demining tank, then came an upgraded Leo 2A4 of Polish origin, a few bradleys...
They where demining a road with mine fields on both sides, this was well known since it was Ukrainian mines.
They travelled with 3 tank lengths between them in a good orderly fashion as a Russian drone picked up the detonating mines.
The Russian drone operator sent in the coordinates to his artillery.
At this point the Russian mineroller tank suffered a track failure.
A Bradley tried to round it, and got blown by a mine (crew survived)
The Finnish demining tank then took point and got hit on the demining prongs by an artillery shell and one of the tracks broke.
Then a couple of Bradleys broke of, one got hit by a shell (all dead), the other a mine (all survived), and the Polish Leo 2A4 got hit on the side, this broke of a few bits and bobs, and broke the track and cracked a couple of roller-wheels (all survived).
This is a manouvre that is always the devils alternative.
You know there is a high risk of losses, but it needs be done.
Trying to turn around and do dainty manouvres with mines all around you is not an option, you have to back out if this happens.
And backing is not easy since that involves the chump at the back end noticing what is happening at the front, and hitting reverse letting the next reverse, etcetera, etcetera... Problem is that the field of vision is not good when going in a column.
So, it takes time to get out.
No mistake was made, except for the Bradley that tried to go around the mine-roller.
This was all, just normal combat losses, even though the manouvre itself was done almost flawlessly.
I am hopping mad at people screaming that the commander should be punnished for doing his/her job.
Sorry, I just needed to blow off some steam
Surovikin
Somehow he has resurfaced again.
After being demoted he was given the title of General of the Space Forces...
Among other things that made him the head of all Russian nukes.
Just to rub it in mostly.
He apparently waltzed in about a week ago to the HQ in Rostov, sent a couple of generals packing to the frontline in Zhaporizhzhia and took over the defence against the Ukrainian offensive.
Zalushnyy and Budanov are not happy about this intervention since the defence was run by utter buffoons prior to him waltzing in.
Here's the hoot part, he has no mandate at all in regards of taking over.
And the first thing he did was blow the dam, and now two more smaller dams.
He blev Kakhovka to be able to pull almost all forces out to Melitopol (he built those defences way back), he also sent small groups of combat veterans to take over the mobiked units and make them hold the lines, which turned out to be effective since those experienced soldiers got a great deal of leeway and are used as we use sergeants.
Politics
The political implication is obviously enormous.
1. Wagner is banned by Shoigu.
2. Wagner says they will only follow Surovikin.
3. Surovikin waltzes in and takes over, without remit from Shoigu.
4. Nobody gives **** booger about Shoigu and follows Surovikin instead.
In short, the army is no longer under MOD control.
Surovikin has complete control of all nukes in Russia, and the ZNPP.
This is both a problem, and an improvement at the same time.
Obiously having the nukes in the hands of a Warlord going for the power in Russia is not an entirely good thing.
But, he also knows how few of them actually work, and that he has no chance in hell in a nuclear confrontation with the west.
He is also very well aware of how the west would react to him using the ZNPP as a nuclear weapon.
What is good is that he is completely rational unlike the others, yes very bloodthirsty, but rational.
The military part of Wagner is now run by General Mizintsev, Surovikins old friend and drinking buddy.
For the first time there are actually options in Russia for some involvement.
We know what Surovikin's plan was all along.
It was to bleed Ukraine in the direction leading down to Crimea, and then hold Crimea at all cost.
Surovikin is not interested one bit in Donbas, that has no military strategic importance whatsoever.
So, he will probably just use that too, to bleed the Ukrainians.
His end goal is to hold Crimea, take Russia, and then negotiate to keap Crimea.
This was the original plan at least, now it is less likely he can achieve this since the Russian army is in a far worse condition compared to when he ran the show, hence the dam blowings.
Now comes the interesting part, what units do Shoigu still hold sway over?
What units would be loyal to Gerasimov?
Probably not enough.
All of a sudden those two will need friends, big friends.
Gerasimov is by now gone in the head, and so deep into the bottle that he is useless, so it is a Shoigu show.
What he has is Kadyrov.
But he is not strong enough on his own.
So, Shoigu will have to walk over to Dzershinskaya and speak meakly with Patrushev and Naryshkin.
He might even have to ask Strelkov and his old war buddies for a hand to sway the population.
Shoigu will do what is needed to try to win.
He does though have a rather interesting card.
I wonder if he realises that.
It would be to surrender to Ukraine, declare peace, and send the army back home to their families.
That would leave Surovikin with a few remnants of special forces, and Wagner, and that does not an army make.
With his own loyal troops and the KGB forces, and some goat-shagging Kadyrovites he would then be able to say sod it to Surovikin, and even be slightly a hero in Russia (deftly blaiming Putin for everything).
But, I am not so certain he is getting this one.
I am though fairly certain that General Strelkov, Naryshkin, or Patrushev are possessing the brains to figure this out sooner or later.
We will see, we have until the last of June to speculate upon things.
I just find it very interesting that Surovikin came back unasked and unwanted."
"Ukraine is pushing back the release of confirmations to 7 days.
This is 2-5 days more than during previous engagements.
So, using a bit of Russian confirmations, and using the 3-5 day delay is good enough in OpSec.
This is the timeframe for todays update.
I can just say that Ukraine has pushed further since.
I will for once just note that Bilhorod Peoples Republic is still partially liberated, and the Russians seem to have given up on kicking them out, and that there are ongoing pushed in Bakhmut and other places.
Instead I will concentrate on the map below if I remember to attach it.
I will also do a bit on that column that ended up in trouble, since every single pundit get things wrong, or go hysterical demanding punishments and whatnots.
Makarivka
This is one of two location where Ukraine has made the largest gains (per today), the other is Vuhledar to Mariupol.
If we go from west to east and start at Levadne the battle there is over, what is not visible is that Ukraine has pushed to the hills and taken Pryvutne.
This had at the time taken Novodarivka and Rivnopil into a pocket, those where the largest Russian defences and Ukraine failed to take them head on, and Russian opened fire from 3 sides with artillery.
Ukraine had taken the two dark blue blotchy heights east of the river, and from there pushed south and took more heights.
This pushed the Russians out of Makarivka that is now confirmed (7 days after the fact).
Ukraine then pushed forward with artillery from the eastern heights and pushed out the Russians from two more settlements, one of them being Staromaiorske.
At the time for my voluntary information cutoff they had started storming Zavitne Bashannya and Oktyabr'ske.
On top of that Ukraine had widened the attack and pushed Russia out of Novodonet'ske and Novomaior'ske.
Ending up holding the Blue line for further pushes.
The blue line is generally where the second Russian line is, and at this location there is no other big fortification behind if you go towards Berdiansk and Mariupol, but large defences towards Melitopol.
Toward Melitopol from the frontline north to south there is the Zero-line at the old front, then there are 3 complete well fortified lines, plus separate fortifications at villages, and a large interconnecting north/south frontline East of Melitopol.
It is a very hard way to go.
This area has been reinforced by troops from Kherson, about a brigades worth.
I earlier told that Russia held back 3 well equipped and well-staffed brigades with combat veterans for use against the Ukrainians when they went on the offensive.
1 has peeled off and started to move towards Makarivka, and the other is moving to block over at Vuhledar.
Ukraine has cleared substantial amounts of Russian artillery, and what is left has severe shell-hunger.
This means that those Russian brigades will be almost completely out of artillery support, except for their own brigade artillery.
Ukraine then moved in an undisclosed over-sized brigade towards Makarivka with the order to squash that Russian brigade by any means possible.
It is the most heavily armed and most battle hardened oversized brigade in the Ukrainian army, it exists only to squish things, so it is a trap for the Russians, and with them are 2 mobile artillery battalion just for extra funzies.
One of those two battalions consist of western high precission artillery, and the other of the boonfangled new Super-GRADs that a certain someone is so enamoured with.
Over at Vuhledar two ordinary mech-brigades are ready for the Russians, and they also have mobile high-precission artillery at their beck and call, so yet another jolly trap.
Note, I am hear writing about what has happened, and that is well known by the Russians.
Even stupid Russian generals tend to notice when Brigades end up in deep creeks of filled with ****.
Columnal Issues
The Russian propagandists milked that a column consisting of a company of mechanized stormtroopers.
First rode a Russian tankroller, then came a Finnish Leopard demining tank, then came an upgraded Leo 2A4 of Polish origin, a few bradleys...
They where demining a road with mine fields on both sides, this was well known since it was Ukrainian mines.
They travelled with 3 tank lengths between them in a good orderly fashion as a Russian drone picked up the detonating mines.
The Russian drone operator sent in the coordinates to his artillery.
At this point the Russian mineroller tank suffered a track failure.
A Bradley tried to round it, and got blown by a mine (crew survived)
The Finnish demining tank then took point and got hit on the demining prongs by an artillery shell and one of the tracks broke.
Then a couple of Bradleys broke of, one got hit by a shell (all dead), the other a mine (all survived), and the Polish Leo 2A4 got hit on the side, this broke of a few bits and bobs, and broke the track and cracked a couple of roller-wheels (all survived).
This is a manouvre that is always the devils alternative.
You know there is a high risk of losses, but it needs be done.
Trying to turn around and do dainty manouvres with mines all around you is not an option, you have to back out if this happens.
And backing is not easy since that involves the chump at the back end noticing what is happening at the front, and hitting reverse letting the next reverse, etcetera, etcetera... Problem is that the field of vision is not good when going in a column.
So, it takes time to get out.
No mistake was made, except for the Bradley that tried to go around the mine-roller.
This was all, just normal combat losses, even though the manouvre itself was done almost flawlessly.
I am hopping mad at people screaming that the commander should be punnished for doing his/her job.
Sorry, I just needed to blow off some steam
Surovikin
Somehow he has resurfaced again.
After being demoted he was given the title of General of the Space Forces...
Among other things that made him the head of all Russian nukes.
Just to rub it in mostly.
He apparently waltzed in about a week ago to the HQ in Rostov, sent a couple of generals packing to the frontline in Zhaporizhzhia and took over the defence against the Ukrainian offensive.
Zalushnyy and Budanov are not happy about this intervention since the defence was run by utter buffoons prior to him waltzing in.
Here's the hoot part, he has no mandate at all in regards of taking over.
And the first thing he did was blow the dam, and now two more smaller dams.
He blev Kakhovka to be able to pull almost all forces out to Melitopol (he built those defences way back), he also sent small groups of combat veterans to take over the mobiked units and make them hold the lines, which turned out to be effective since those experienced soldiers got a great deal of leeway and are used as we use sergeants.
Politics
The political implication is obviously enormous.
1. Wagner is banned by Shoigu.
2. Wagner says they will only follow Surovikin.
3. Surovikin waltzes in and takes over, without remit from Shoigu.
4. Nobody gives **** booger about Shoigu and follows Surovikin instead.
In short, the army is no longer under MOD control.
Surovikin has complete control of all nukes in Russia, and the ZNPP.
This is both a problem, and an improvement at the same time.
Obiously having the nukes in the hands of a Warlord going for the power in Russia is not an entirely good thing.
But, he also knows how few of them actually work, and that he has no chance in hell in a nuclear confrontation with the west.
He is also very well aware of how the west would react to him using the ZNPP as a nuclear weapon.
What is good is that he is completely rational unlike the others, yes very bloodthirsty, but rational.
The military part of Wagner is now run by General Mizintsev, Surovikins old friend and drinking buddy.
For the first time there are actually options in Russia for some involvement.
We know what Surovikin's plan was all along.
It was to bleed Ukraine in the direction leading down to Crimea, and then hold Crimea at all cost.
Surovikin is not interested one bit in Donbas, that has no military strategic importance whatsoever.
So, he will probably just use that too, to bleed the Ukrainians.
His end goal is to hold Crimea, take Russia, and then negotiate to keap Crimea.
This was the original plan at least, now it is less likely he can achieve this since the Russian army is in a far worse condition compared to when he ran the show, hence the dam blowings.
Now comes the interesting part, what units do Shoigu still hold sway over?
What units would be loyal to Gerasimov?
Probably not enough.
All of a sudden those two will need friends, big friends.
Gerasimov is by now gone in the head, and so deep into the bottle that he is useless, so it is a Shoigu show.
What he has is Kadyrov.
But he is not strong enough on his own.
So, Shoigu will have to walk over to Dzershinskaya and speak meakly with Patrushev and Naryshkin.
He might even have to ask Strelkov and his old war buddies for a hand to sway the population.
Shoigu will do what is needed to try to win.
He does though have a rather interesting card.
I wonder if he realises that.
It would be to surrender to Ukraine, declare peace, and send the army back home to their families.
That would leave Surovikin with a few remnants of special forces, and Wagner, and that does not an army make.
With his own loyal troops and the KGB forces, and some goat-shagging Kadyrovites he would then be able to say sod it to Surovikin, and even be slightly a hero in Russia (deftly blaiming Putin for everything).
But, I am not so certain he is getting this one.
I am though fairly certain that General Strelkov, Naryshkin, or Patrushev are possessing the brains to figure this out sooner or later.
We will see, we have until the last of June to speculate upon things.
I just find it very interesting that Surovikin came back unasked and unwanted."
Crikey, things moving fast
"Earlier today Defence Minister Shoigu of Russia implemented a shot to kill order for any soldier in PMC Wagner inside and outside of Russia.
All members are to be killed on sight, including senior management.
This has been confirmed over existing channels, and through official channels.
The civil war of Russia has thus started.
This came about after a very weird televised meeting with "a Putin".
In and of itself that was very weird, Shoigu looked really scared in the photographs, and "the Putin" mostly turned his back on Shoigu.
From what I heard everyone in Moscow is in total shock and bewilderment over this, and there are reportedly several meetings all over Moscow in unusual places.
I do not think that Wagner is ready for this, they are in deep bases in the hinterlands of Russia, and any support from Surovikin would take days, if not weeks to materialise.
I fully expect a call back of the army any day now, they just can't have a civil war and a war at the same time.
As of now we have no news about what Kadyrov will do, he is the only one with an army except the regular army and Wagner. Well, FSB has one, but it is light on heavy equipment.
Kadyrov will be the dealmaker in this, and I think he will hold back his support for as long as possible, and then go for the throne himself.
We will see, it got interesting 2.5 weeks before we believed it would."
"Earlier today Defence Minister Shoigu of Russia implemented a shot to kill order for any soldier in PMC Wagner inside and outside of Russia.
All members are to be killed on sight, including senior management.
This has been confirmed over existing channels, and through official channels.
The civil war of Russia has thus started.
This came about after a very weird televised meeting with "a Putin".
In and of itself that was very weird, Shoigu looked really scared in the photographs, and "the Putin" mostly turned his back on Shoigu.
From what I heard everyone in Moscow is in total shock and bewilderment over this, and there are reportedly several meetings all over Moscow in unusual places.
I do not think that Wagner is ready for this, they are in deep bases in the hinterlands of Russia, and any support from Surovikin would take days, if not weeks to materialise.
I fully expect a call back of the army any day now, they just can't have a civil war and a war at the same time.
As of now we have no news about what Kadyrov will do, he is the only one with an army except the regular army and Wagner. Well, FSB has one, but it is light on heavy equipment.
Kadyrov will be the dealmaker in this, and I think he will hold back his support for as long as possible, and then go for the throne himself.
We will see, it got interesting 2.5 weeks before we believed it would."
Not convinced myself it’s quite reached that stage yet . Given shoigu and his demands for the contracts and the refusal of Wagner to sign them I can envisage it escalating to that though .
Ukraine have actually said Wagner are more effective in combat than the regular Russian army . So Wagner may still fancy their chances
Not sure how reliable this is, but...
Yeah hearing it now too
Think we need some more official confirmation from more reliable sources though
Sorry didn’t mean to sound like a d*ck to boro lad , I meant the twitter sources
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
I am in no way trying to contradict or criticize your friend and he is obviously a very knowledgeable fella and comes across as an very intelligent bloke, but I feel he can be a little optimistic in his analysis of situations.
I think his original time frame 2-3 weeks seems like the more realistic timeframe for anything major to happen, right now I think it is more about the different factions calling in favours, making alliances, posturing and making small power plays. I think it will take some major event from A Russian perspective(collapse of the front line, major incident in a major Russian city that type of event, most likely scenario is a collapse of a large section of the front line or Crimea getting fully cut off) before the internal hostilities become critical.
This isn't me trying to be a smartass it's just looking at similar situations historically which resulted in a civil war or revolution such as the civil war in Rome around 90BC with Sulla and Marius(military had tried to strip Sulla of his legion), French Revolution(not exactly the same but economic pressures played a big part in it) and the war of the roses(weak leader and loss of land and battles in France).
I just think right now Russia is realistically in a position where it knows the military situation is very bad and a power vacuum has formed especially with Putin for whatever reason(I honestly don't think the "real Putin" is in charge anymore this internal situation with the groups openly arguing and fighting wouldn't of happened with a prime Putin running the show) doesn't seem to have the same iron grip that he previously had, right now the major players are busy making alliances(or trying to bump off potential rivals) I just think it will take a bigger spark such as a collapse in the front line or the Kerch bridge going boom before anyone will make a major move and power play.
I think his original time frame 2-3 weeks seems like the more realistic timeframe for anything major to happen, right now I think it is more about the different factions calling in favours, making alliances, posturing and making small power plays. I think it will take some major event from A Russian perspective(collapse of the front line, major incident in a major Russian city that type of event, most likely scenario is a collapse of a large section of the front line or Crimea getting fully cut off) before the internal hostilities become critical.
This isn't me trying to be a smartass it's just looking at similar situations historically which resulted in a civil war or revolution such as the civil war in Rome around 90BC with Sulla and Marius(military had tried to strip Sulla of his legion), French Revolution(not exactly the same but economic pressures played a big part in it) and the war of the roses(weak leader and loss of land and battles in France).
I just think right now Russia is realistically in a position where it knows the military situation is very bad and a power vacuum has formed especially with Putin for whatever reason(I honestly don't think the "real Putin" is in charge anymore this internal situation with the groups openly arguing and fighting wouldn't of happened with a prime Putin running the show) doesn't seem to have the same iron grip that he previously had, right now the major players are busy making alliances(or trying to bump off potential rivals) I just think it will take a bigger spark such as a collapse in the front line or the Kerch bridge going boom before anyone will make a major move and power play.
I reckon it will need to take more of a collapse from Russia for the factions to start fighting too
It's a fair observation. He can be a tad excitable. But then again, a lot has happened in the last 24 hours. Girkin has been curiously quiet on this stuff so far.
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
I think it’s his excitability which makes his blog so entertaining but obviously a fair bit of truth in there as well. As others have said above you just have to make your own opinion on what is going to happen.
This postulation that Russia will collapse into civil war because NATO countries are supporting the Ukraine army on their doorstep is a bit of a stretch to me. Putin and co are a lot of things but they are not stupid, they must have known how the USA and partners would react to the invasion.
But I’m only a Boro forum punter so I could be way off the mark.