Latest update ... but old news. Some speculation based upon knowledge.
"Ukraine is pushing back the release of confirmations to 7 days.
This is 2-5 days more than during previous engagements.
So, using a bit of Russian confirmations, and using the 3-5 day delay is good enough in OpSec.
This is the timeframe for todays update.
I can just say that Ukraine has pushed further since.
I will for once just note that Bilhorod Peoples Republic is still partially liberated, and the Russians seem to have given up on kicking them out, and that there are ongoing pushed in Bakhmut and other places.
Instead I will concentrate on the map below if I remember to attach it.
I will also do a bit on that column that ended up in trouble, since every single pundit get things wrong, or go hysterical demanding punishments and whatnots.
Makarivka
This is one of two location where Ukraine has made the largest gains (per today), the other is Vuhledar to Mariupol.
If we go from west to east and start at Levadne the battle there is over, what is not visible is that Ukraine has pushed to the hills and taken Pryvutne.
This had at the time taken Novodarivka and Rivnopil into a pocket, those where the largest Russian defences and Ukraine failed to take them head on, and Russian opened fire from 3 sides with artillery.
Ukraine had taken the two dark blue blotchy heights east of the river, and from there pushed south and took more heights.
This pushed the Russians out of Makarivka that is now confirmed (7 days after the fact).
Ukraine then pushed forward with artillery from the eastern heights and pushed out the Russians from two more settlements, one of them being Staromaiorske.
At the time for my voluntary information cutoff they had started storming Zavitne Bashannya and Oktyabr'ske.
On top of that Ukraine had widened the attack and pushed Russia out of Novodonet'ske and Novomaior'ske.
Ending up holding the Blue line for further pushes.
The blue line is generally where the second Russian line is, and at this location there is no other big fortification behind if you go towards Berdiansk and Mariupol, but large defences towards Melitopol.
Toward Melitopol from the frontline north to south there is the Zero-line at the old front, then there are 3 complete well fortified lines, plus separate fortifications at villages, and a large interconnecting north/south frontline East of Melitopol.
It is a very hard way to go.
This area has been reinforced by troops from Kherson, about a brigades worth.
I earlier told that Russia held back 3 well equipped and well-staffed brigades with combat veterans for use against the Ukrainians when they went on the offensive.
1 has peeled off and started to move towards Makarivka, and the other is moving to block over at Vuhledar.
Ukraine has cleared substantial amounts of Russian artillery, and what is left has severe shell-hunger.
This means that those Russian brigades will be almost completely out of artillery support, except for their own brigade artillery.
Ukraine then moved in an undisclosed over-sized brigade towards Makarivka with the order to squash that Russian brigade by any means possible.
It is the most heavily armed and most battle hardened oversized brigade in the Ukrainian army, it exists only to squish things, so it is a trap for the Russians, and with them are 2 mobile artillery battalion just for extra funzies.
One of those two battalions consist of western high precission artillery, and the other of the boonfangled new Super-GRADs that a certain someone is so enamoured with.
Over at Vuhledar two ordinary mech-brigades are ready for the Russians, and they also have mobile high-precission artillery at their beck and call, so yet another jolly trap.
Note, I am hear writing about what has happened, and that is well known by the Russians.
Even stupid Russian generals tend to notice when Brigades end up in deep creeks of filled with ****.
Columnal Issues
The Russian propagandists milked that a column consisting of a company of mechanized stormtroopers.
First rode a Russian tankroller, then came a Finnish Leopard demining tank, then came an upgraded Leo 2A4 of Polish origin, a few bradleys...
They where demining a road with mine fields on both sides, this was well known since it was Ukrainian mines.
They travelled with 3 tank lengths between them in a good orderly fashion as a Russian drone picked up the detonating mines.
The Russian drone operator sent in the coordinates to his artillery.
At this point the Russian mineroller tank suffered a track failure.
A Bradley tried to round it, and got blown by a mine (crew survived)
The Finnish demining tank then took point and got hit on the demining prongs by an artillery shell and one of the tracks broke.
Then a couple of Bradleys broke of, one got hit by a shell (all dead), the other a mine (all survived), and the Polish Leo 2A4 got hit on the side, this broke of a few bits and bobs, and broke the track and cracked a couple of roller-wheels (all survived).
This is a manouvre that is always the devils alternative.
You know there is a high risk of losses, but it needs be done.
Trying to turn around and do dainty manouvres with mines all around you is not an option, you have to back out if this happens.
And backing is not easy since that involves the chump at the back end noticing what is happening at the front, and hitting reverse letting the next reverse, etcetera, etcetera... Problem is that the field of vision is not good when going in a column.
So, it takes time to get out.
No mistake was made, except for the Bradley that tried to go around the mine-roller.
This was all, just normal combat losses, even though the manouvre itself was done almost flawlessly.
I am hopping mad at people screaming that the commander should be punnished for doing his/her job.
Sorry, I just needed to blow off some steam
Surovikin
Somehow he has resurfaced again.
After being demoted he was given the title of General of the Space Forces...
Among other things that made him the head of all Russian nukes.
Just to rub it in mostly.
He apparently waltzed in about a week ago to the HQ in Rostov, sent a couple of generals packing to the frontline in Zhaporizhzhia and took over the defence against the Ukrainian offensive.
Zalushnyy and Budanov are not happy about this intervention since the defence was run by utter buffoons prior to him waltzing in.
Here's the hoot part, he has no mandate at all in regards of taking over.
And the first thing he did was blow the dam, and now two more smaller dams.
He blev Kakhovka to be able to pull almost all forces out to Melitopol (he built those defences way back), he also sent small groups of combat veterans to take over the mobiked units and make them hold the lines, which turned out to be effective since those experienced soldiers got a great deal of leeway and are used as we use sergeants.
Politics
The political implication is obviously enormous.
1. Wagner is banned by Shoigu.
2. Wagner says they will only follow Surovikin.
3. Surovikin waltzes in and takes over, without remit from Shoigu.
4. Nobody gives **** booger about Shoigu and follows Surovikin instead.
In short, the army is no longer under MOD control.
Surovikin has complete control of all nukes in Russia, and the ZNPP.
This is both a problem, and an improvement at the same time.
Obiously having the nukes in the hands of a Warlord going for the power in Russia is not an entirely good thing.
But, he also knows how few of them actually work, and that he has no chance in hell in a nuclear confrontation with the west.
He is also very well aware of how the west would react to him using the ZNPP as a nuclear weapon.
What is good is that he is completely rational unlike the others, yes very bloodthirsty, but rational.
The military part of Wagner is now run by General Mizintsev, Surovikins old friend and drinking buddy.
For the first time there are actually options in Russia for some involvement.
We know what Surovikin's plan was all along.
It was to bleed Ukraine in the direction leading down to Crimea, and then hold Crimea at all cost.
Surovikin is not interested one bit in Donbas, that has no military strategic importance whatsoever.
So, he will probably just use that too, to bleed the Ukrainians.
His end goal is to hold Crimea, take Russia, and then negotiate to keap Crimea.
This was the original plan at least, now it is less likely he can achieve this since the Russian army is in a far worse condition compared to when he ran the show, hence the dam blowings.
Now comes the interesting part, what units do Shoigu still hold sway over?
What units would be loyal to Gerasimov?
Probably not enough.
All of a sudden those two will need friends, big friends.
Gerasimov is by now gone in the head, and so deep into the bottle that he is useless, so it is a Shoigu show.
What he has is Kadyrov.
But he is not strong enough on his own.
So, Shoigu will have to walk over to Dzershinskaya and speak meakly with Patrushev and Naryshkin.
He might even have to ask Strelkov and his old war buddies for a hand to sway the population.
Shoigu will do what is needed to try to win.
He does though have a rather interesting card.
I wonder if he realises that.
It would be to surrender to Ukraine, declare peace, and send the army back home to their families.
That would leave Surovikin with a few remnants of special forces, and Wagner, and that does not an army make.
With his own loyal troops and the KGB forces, and some goat-shagging Kadyrovites he would then be able to say sod it to Surovikin, and even be slightly a hero in Russia (deftly blaiming Putin for everything).
But, I am not so certain he is getting this one.
I am though fairly certain that General Strelkov, Naryshkin, or Patrushev are possessing the brains to figure this out sooner or later.
We will see, we have until the last of June to speculate upon things.
I just find it very interesting that Surovikin came back unasked and unwanted."