The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
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Thomas Newsome: Armed forces member accused of sharing 'highly sensitive military information'
Thomas Newsome, 36, appeared at Westminster Magistrates' Court on Saturday charged with sharing "highly sensitive" military information which, if leaked, would pose a "real and immediate threat to Britons outside the UK" and "facilitate the targeting of personnel", the court heard.news.sky.com
Not your mate is it?
Nope. My mate doesn't serve in the UK.
Fattyfoggon
Well-known member
there was actually an article in the guardian a couple of weeks ago about a ex Swedish army lieutenant Marcus I think training the Ukrainians wondered at the time if it was linked to your mate but assumed there will be quite few helping with the training from various nations
He was training them a while back, but not here in the UK. He's back to Analyst duties now. I reckon he's too fat to climb into his tank now
He'd probably say as much.
Yesterday
italianjob
Well-known member
Photoshopped?
Hap
Well-known member
It’s at the very North of the front, I think, so quite plausible.
Apparently, but only to remove the lower portion of the sign. As far as I understand, after softening up the military bases and munitions dumps around Belgorod there was no inward movement of defensive forces, so Ukrainian forces decided to avail themselves of an easy win. Obvs this isn't going to be confirmed or otherwise any time soon, just as the reports of Ukrainian forces crossing the river and moving south in Kherson are not being confirmed for OPSEC reasons.
I suppose it might be Maskirova, but our man seems to think it's genuine.
Hap
Well-known member
It’s not far from Kharkiv in any case.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Not seen that before, but that's some delay mind!
Looks like the impact took out the street lighting cables, before the detonation took everything.
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Yesterdays' content (yes, I know there's a game on).
I've included all the "dreaming" stuff. But it should be taken as such.
"Earlier today I read an article that made my brain hurt.
It was a pundit who extolled over that it was idiotic of Ukraine to take and hold the southern bank downriver of Nova Kakhovka due to it being worthless swampland.
And from there the pundit deduced that it was just a temporary special forces operation.
After reading it I felt that I had grown so stupid by just reading it that I needed to take a walk to shake it off.
Yes, there are patches of it that are swamplands, but those are no deeper than 50 meters, and in many parts they have been infilled or removed. So much so that there are even vacation hotels on the shores where people go to fish and swim.
The Russians used those hotels as barracks, or as command posts.
Today they are though mostly blown up by Ukrainian artillery.
The we come to the part of tactics and strategy.
Those hotels had docklandings, and these are important to Ukraine and increase the speed at which they can bring over reinforcements and gear.
And taking the shores is only the first step to attacking Nova Kakhovka itself to secure both sides of the dam, so that they can repair it and bring over heavy gear.
After that we are into strategy since it would give the Ukrainians the ability to spread out and take Kherson and strike towards Crimea.
This is obvious if you are not a pundit.
Anyway, it is time to look a bit at what is happening from what little news there is.
Belgorod
I am not certain what Ukraine is doing there, but seeing members of the Georgian Legion taking selfies six kilometres outside of the City gives two possibilities.
1. This was intended as a diversionary attack and it went way better than anyone expected, and a single brigade blasted its way 30km towards Moscow.
If so this was meant to draw troops away from Donbas to reinforce the Russian border.
This did then fail since Russia has not started to move a single soldier towards Belgorod.
2. This may be a serious attack meant to take the City to try to force Russia to the negotiation table.
Same here, it seems like they will not move any troops, or negotiate anyway.
If this would succeed Ukraine seemingly will have to take all of Belgorod Oblast at a minimum, and probably Bryansk and Kursk too...
I will come back to possible implications of this at the end.
Donbas
Russia is pushing every bit as hard here as before, especially in Bakhmut.
There are signs of Russia moving forces towards Bakhmut all the way from Mariupol now.
Vuhledar
Here Russia is holding, but the reserve troops are being moved out towards Bakhmut, which is pretty much insane, or something else is going on.
Zhaporizhzhia
That Ukraine could start to push Russia backwards without even really committing large forces is also baffling.
Ukraine did not believe this first push would succeed and was rather unprepared to seizing and holding a large area, they are though rapidly rectifying this mistake.
There is a pattern emerging here...
Southern Kherson
Regardless of brain damaged pundits, after the 4 day special forces occupation of the swamplands that does not exist, and relentlessly attacking Nova Kakhovka, Ukraine got the cell-towers operational, so Ukrainian phones and internet work.
There are also wave after wave of reinforcements being ferried over.
With 3 different amphibious landings going on one would think that the Russians would rally to drive them away?
But, alas no...
If anything there are signs of rear troops moving out into Crimea, and eastwards presumably to Bakhmut.
The Great Giveup
The last clear order the Russian army got was to at all cost take Donbas.
This order was issued as a step of the Russian spring offensive, and was probably never intended to be an item after it. But, since no new political order has been issued they continue the same fatal thing into the absurd.
I will return to what I think is happening here later.
To be able to take Donbas they seem quite happy with moving out of Kherson, Zhaporizhzhia, and all the way over to Mariupol.
There is a clear advantage for the Russians, they can then pool their meagre resources into holding Crimea, and expand their holding to all of Donbas.
Problem is though that it would give the Ukrainians a similar opportunity to pool their resources to push Russia backwards in Donbas.
Unless we start to see large movements of troops within the next two weeks I am certain that Russia will perform one of their fabled "goodwill" gestures.
If Russia continues their senseless Donbas offensive they will effectively lose sooner rather than later, but if they instead would concentrate on Holding on to their 2014 gains, then it would be costly indeed for Ukraine to win in Donbas.
If this is the plan they are even willing to trade off areas in Russia to achieve it.
This is so baffling that it just can't be a part of any plan.
Moscow
I know I sound like a madman stating that Putin is most likely dead and have been that for a while.
But, let me paint a picture, and have the baffling parts of the above in mind while you read, and let us assume he is dead.
We do know that there has evolved 3 groups of ex-putin advisors, The Siloviki (FSB, GRU, etcetera), The civil servants (Lavrov, Peskov, Medvedev and Mishustin), and lastly the army group led by Soyghurt and Gerasimov.
The news that the FSB is purging the leadership of Putins Rosgvardia means that Putin is no longer in control, there is no way in hell he would let the FSB purge his loyal guards and his private army.
No way, ever. He used them to keep control over the FSB and the Army.
This move is strengthening the Siloviki quite a bit, leaving them with the army as the only large contender, and they are out in Ukraine, and it weakens the civil servant faction significantly.
This leaves Wagner and the Kadyrovites as the only opposing forces to the Siloviki.
Kadyrov is sitting still in the boat, he also has problems at home with increasing signs of a revolt brewing.
Prigozhin is trying to be a viable option, but without support from any faction he is a gonner as soon as things get hot, and he knows this.
Hence his African ventures.
All of this means that for the last 4 months or so nobody has been leading Russia.
Hence no new political orders, hence no reactions to what Ukraine is doing, just a blind stupid dogged attempt to fulfill the last order of their former leader.
Losing Ukraine completely in a way that grinds down the army is just strengthening the SIloviki, but also the civil servant faction.
Losing a few Oblasts? Russia is big, incredibly big.
And Ukraine will either way not get to keep them as and when there is a peace settlement, the West will make certain of that.
And if not? Well, 3 Oblasts is unimportant when you can win Moscow itself, and in Russia only Moscow counts.
So, what is Russia up to during a big war that might be more important than the war itself?
The Great Game of Thrones and Chess
On the 17th of March 2024 there is a Presidential election.
All parties seem to be quite happy to keep the charade going until then.
In december a Putin will go up on the stage and state that he will not run for the election due to old age, herpes, syphilis, or any other reason that is somewhat believable to the general gullible Russian audience.
To legitimise the new leadership there will be the need of an election.
There will be several candidates.
Some will be pure filling material, and each faction will put forth a candidate, or even several.
Heck, they will probably throw in a real opposition candidate to make it even more credible.
Why the election?
All sides know that if they go to solving the leadership crisis with guns blasing Russia is gone.
They need a candidate that can bring back the good old days with all the gold splendour of the tzars, but with a democratic chimera in the beginning.
Initially there will be a bewildering plethora of serious, unserious, and token candidates.
But, in the end at the first round it will be far fewer candidates.
Here is the list that I think will run:
-Peskov
-Mishustin
-Soyghurt
-Medvedev
-Strelkov
-Kadyrov
-Prigozhin (unless he is killed first)
And then an oppossition leader.
By then Navalny will be dead.
So, as he declares that he would like to run, they will comb the hair of Vladimir Kara-Murza and pardon him.
The Siloviki candidates are Peskov and Mishustin.
Soyghurt will represent the army.
Medvedev and Strelkov are the Siloviki candidates.
Kadyrov and Prigozhin will take the role of the independent alternatives without a chance in hell.
And Kara-Murza will be the opposition leader carrying the torch of the Nemtsovian movement and backed by every other opposition leader extant except Navalny who will be dead (at least I hope so).
From December onwards the list will shrink as Mishustin bows out in favour of Peskov, Soyghurt will continue, and Medvedev will go back to being a drunk and Strelkov moves onwards.
Prigozhin will either die, or give up leaving Kadyrov as the free mover.
And Kara-Murza will get stronger.
In the election this will be the result of the first round:
1. Strelkov
2. Kara-Murza
3. Peskov
4. Soyghurt
5. Kadyrov
On the second round Strelkov will walk away with about 10.53 percent more votes than Kara-Murza.
Obviously this has nothing to do with how people actually vote, it is Russia after all.
But, it looks good to have the new Tzar winning over the champion of democracy with a comfortable, but still realistic margin.
Heck, it is Russia, it might not even be far from how the chips would fall in a real election after all.
In other words, nobody is interested in the war any longer, they are all busy playin chess for the throne.
Oh, and note how healthy and well nourished Kara-Murza looked when he was sentenced to 25 years...
Navalny looked like **** during sentencing, and is getting worse by the month...
No, Russia will need Kara-Murza well and alive.
Look, we are not bad, we even pardoned the great democratic leader to make it a fair election... etcetera.
It is all now stage setting for the only battle that matters to Moscow, the battle for Moscow itself.
And the war is letting FSB control everything since the army is occupied."
And then (sorry for this) today ... some factual updates.
"
One can say one thing for sure about the war at this stage, and that is that the weather is not cooperating with Ukraine right now.
Instead General Mud has once more decended upon the battlefield victoriously.
Belgorod Correction
It was sort of not Ukraine that went on the offensive.
What happened was that the Ukrainians massaged the Russians, both at depth and across the frontline, this was successful enough for the Russians holding the border to come up with a terrific idea.
They upped and abouted and left for the far nicer trenches that the Belgorod Militia had dug right outside of the City of Belgorod.
The Russian soldiers are now able to go and get food, and buy vodka, at their own leisure.
If this was authorised by Russian command is at this point unknown, but I do think it was the local soldiers own idea.
This has left a rather hefty Greyzone inside of Russia that at around Belgorod City is 30 kilometres deep.
A few Ukrainian units have taken it upon themselves to go in force to take selfies around the area and generally bullying Russia with images of them drinking tea and eating cookies infront of signs that says Belgorod 6km etcetera.
Now and then Russia is sending out patrols to try and chase the "tourists" away from mother Russia.
This has obviously led to sporadic clashes.
Neither side has control right now, and it seems like Ukraine is quite baffled about what to do about it.
It is one thing with Ukrainian soldiers going on vacation there taking selfies with Russian Babushkies and roadsigns, another to take Belgorod it seems.
I think Ukraine hopes that if enough selfies are taken, Russia will have to reinforce the area.
But, so far Russia is still trying to satisfy themselves sexually with Bakhmut.
A humorous report came from a village where a few fine upstanding Russian men had drunk oodles of vodka and started a fight amongst themselves.
The villagers flagged down a Ukrainian unit to deal with them...
Sometimes during a war, really weird things will happen.
The Weirdest part is how happy the Babushkies look on the selfies...
Bakhmut
Russia has in the last 24 hours moved in two brigades from Luhansk to reinforce the Northern flank at Bakhmut, and two more Brigades from Donetsk City to reinforce the Southern flank.
With about 10-15 percent of Bakhmut left to take it seems that Russia is truly going for broke here.
All that Ukraine need to do is hold things for 10 days until the weather has cleared up and the ground is drying, and Bakhmut has well and truly served it's purpose.
Russia is already talking openly about taking Chasiv Yar next, and that will take almost as long time as Bakhmut itself.
I hope Russia stick to this plan, because then they will be truly and stupendously buggered.
Nothing new has happened at Avdiivka and Vuhledar, Ukraine is struggling with the mud at the first place, and in Vuhledar they do the time honoured artillery pounding while eating borstj.
Zhaporizhzhia
This has also turned into a large Greyzone since Ukraine is not really interested in fighting General Mud, and the Russians are happy in their new trenches that so far are free from rotting corpses.
The general Russian movement is still in the direction of Donbas with all deep reserve forces, even though there are signs that this particular lunacy is slowing down.
In the Greyzone small patrols from both sides drive around patroling the roads.
Crimea
During the night both aerial and aquatic drones struck home at Sevastopol, and there are videos of large explosions in the Naval base.
No photage is yet available of what was deconstructed there.
Other installations was also hit, but with varying degrees of success.
Moscow
Before we go to the main fireworks, let us do Moscow.
On the 9th of May Moscow will supposedly hold the Victory Parade.
A Ukrainian oligarch has promised to pay out half a million US dollars to anyone who can land a drone with Ukrainian propaganda on it during said parade.
During the day several videos was uploaded of drones merrily buzing about over the Red Square unmolested.
Regardless of Ukrainian propaganda drones, all other Victory Day parades are cancelled all over Russia, citing security reasons.
One probable reason is that Russia does not have equipment and men enough to perform them.
Another reason is that according to Russian sources they fear civil unrest over the number of killed, and that the parades would erupt into protests.
The Moscow Parade is turning into a very sad event.
First they banned the Immortal Legion Parade part, then the air show, then it shrunk some more...
And right now there is even confusion about if it has been cancelled outright.
If it is cancelled the murmurs in Moscow that not everything is right in Russia will get quite a bit of kindling for a fire.
Cancelling the most important event on the Russian social calender is just unheard of, it will be writ large in the sky that something has gone truly and spectacularly sideways for Russia.
It is still a day off in Russia, and Russia will be drunk... things may get very interesting.
Kherson
After taking the bridgehead downstream of Nova Kakhovka Ukraine has spread out along the riverbanks, and invards towards Nova Kakhovka itself, this means that Ukraine now is holding key property, and if they can push the Russians out of Nova Kakhovka they have enough depth to rebuild the dam (they might already be doing it) or risk losing a lot of engineering troops from Russian artillery fire.
Repairing the dam road will be quick work, all that is needed is driving in enough dump truck loads of bolders and gravel to fill the road gaps, and they have a functioning bridge.
Antonivka Bridge, here the Ukrainians have spread out far and are fighting in Olechky and have taken the old Bridge landing and moved onwards to the train bridge (that is also partially broken).
Ukraine are ferrying over more troops and equipment as fast as can be done with the boats and ferries that they have at hand, and each night more boats, barges and ferries arrive to increase the speed.
It is surprising that Russia still has not sent forward reinforcements to try to stop this.
Over at Kinburn the same thing is going on with new troops arriving each night by barges and small ships that have been jurryrigged as landing crafts.
The barges was run up on the sandy beach and tied off to each other and there is a small port forming on the sat pictures.
At the same time Ukrainian artillery are pouring it over the Russians, and the only viable access road for the Russians to Kinburn.
The Ukrainians are slowly spreading outwards here too.
In Kherson it is important to remember that Ukraine always expected to fight in mud initially, regardless of the weather.
So, they came prepared for it.
This does not necessarily mean that this was intended as the main attack, or at least as one of them.
The original idea was obviously to have a simultaneous Ukrainian offensive over at Zhaporizhzhia to make certain that Kherson could not be reinforced.
Due to Russian strategic stupidity it is though working regardless, since Russian is not reinforcing anything except their beloved Bakhmut.
Russian Generals?
A former colleague of mine pointed out today something that I had missed somehow.
There are almost no Russian generals.
Even prior to the war there was very few generals that had gone the long road through military school, officer school, colonel school, and general school.
Instead Russia favours toadies and generally fun people to party with.
Just as a reminder, Kadyrov is a Russian general... let that sink in.
Gerasimovs son was a general, even though he did not even attend colonel school.
And it just goes on and on.
So, unless Russia is pressganging oldtimers from the Soviet era, they are almost out of real generals.
If we look away from the Air Force Generals and the Navy (that has Admirals), there are two in the Far East, and 5 for the rest of Russia.
3 of them are in Ukraine, Surovikin was fired and moved to the Air Defence Force, and Gerasimov himself.
7 real generals...
Lapin is a dungbeetle according to sources, and the other two become real generals because they completely lack any spine.
Surovikin tried to do the job as best as he could shunting political orders to the side as much as he could, but these 3 will not do that.
Gerasimov is drunk and has mental issues after his son was blown up.
That leaves basically the "generals" running the show, and they blindly follow their order to take Bakhmut and Donbas, and with no new order arriving, that is what they will do until the last Russian soldier has died.
5 generals for a war, 1 is unstable, 1 was fired, 1 was fired and rehired (Lapin) and two that are less than good.
Talk about overloaded generals.
As I caught on to this I understand better what is happening on the Russian side of the war.
Russia is indeed a zombie army milling about trying to find a brain to eat, because they have already eaten their own brains.
I feel sorry for any future historian that will have to explain in a thick toome what the hell happened.
On top of that our future historians will have to explain Memewars, NAFO and 3D-printed pink dildo grenades being dropped into trenches.
The war is a tragicomedy taken to the nth-degree."
I know him well enought to know that this last comment (obvs there is no comedy) is just him dealing with grimness.
I've included all the "dreaming" stuff. But it should be taken as such.
"Earlier today I read an article that made my brain hurt.
It was a pundit who extolled over that it was idiotic of Ukraine to take and hold the southern bank downriver of Nova Kakhovka due to it being worthless swampland.
And from there the pundit deduced that it was just a temporary special forces operation.
After reading it I felt that I had grown so stupid by just reading it that I needed to take a walk to shake it off.
Yes, there are patches of it that are swamplands, but those are no deeper than 50 meters, and in many parts they have been infilled or removed. So much so that there are even vacation hotels on the shores where people go to fish and swim.
The Russians used those hotels as barracks, or as command posts.
Today they are though mostly blown up by Ukrainian artillery.
The we come to the part of tactics and strategy.
Those hotels had docklandings, and these are important to Ukraine and increase the speed at which they can bring over reinforcements and gear.
And taking the shores is only the first step to attacking Nova Kakhovka itself to secure both sides of the dam, so that they can repair it and bring over heavy gear.
After that we are into strategy since it would give the Ukrainians the ability to spread out and take Kherson and strike towards Crimea.
This is obvious if you are not a pundit.
Anyway, it is time to look a bit at what is happening from what little news there is.
Belgorod
I am not certain what Ukraine is doing there, but seeing members of the Georgian Legion taking selfies six kilometres outside of the City gives two possibilities.
1. This was intended as a diversionary attack and it went way better than anyone expected, and a single brigade blasted its way 30km towards Moscow.
If so this was meant to draw troops away from Donbas to reinforce the Russian border.
This did then fail since Russia has not started to move a single soldier towards Belgorod.
2. This may be a serious attack meant to take the City to try to force Russia to the negotiation table.
Same here, it seems like they will not move any troops, or negotiate anyway.
If this would succeed Ukraine seemingly will have to take all of Belgorod Oblast at a minimum, and probably Bryansk and Kursk too...
I will come back to possible implications of this at the end.
Donbas
Russia is pushing every bit as hard here as before, especially in Bakhmut.
There are signs of Russia moving forces towards Bakhmut all the way from Mariupol now.
Vuhledar
Here Russia is holding, but the reserve troops are being moved out towards Bakhmut, which is pretty much insane, or something else is going on.
Zhaporizhzhia
That Ukraine could start to push Russia backwards without even really committing large forces is also baffling.
Ukraine did not believe this first push would succeed and was rather unprepared to seizing and holding a large area, they are though rapidly rectifying this mistake.
There is a pattern emerging here...
Southern Kherson
Regardless of brain damaged pundits, after the 4 day special forces occupation of the swamplands that does not exist, and relentlessly attacking Nova Kakhovka, Ukraine got the cell-towers operational, so Ukrainian phones and internet work.
There are also wave after wave of reinforcements being ferried over.
With 3 different amphibious landings going on one would think that the Russians would rally to drive them away?
But, alas no...
If anything there are signs of rear troops moving out into Crimea, and eastwards presumably to Bakhmut.
The Great Giveup
The last clear order the Russian army got was to at all cost take Donbas.
This order was issued as a step of the Russian spring offensive, and was probably never intended to be an item after it. But, since no new political order has been issued they continue the same fatal thing into the absurd.
I will return to what I think is happening here later.
To be able to take Donbas they seem quite happy with moving out of Kherson, Zhaporizhzhia, and all the way over to Mariupol.
There is a clear advantage for the Russians, they can then pool their meagre resources into holding Crimea, and expand their holding to all of Donbas.
Problem is though that it would give the Ukrainians a similar opportunity to pool their resources to push Russia backwards in Donbas.
Unless we start to see large movements of troops within the next two weeks I am certain that Russia will perform one of their fabled "goodwill" gestures.
If Russia continues their senseless Donbas offensive they will effectively lose sooner rather than later, but if they instead would concentrate on Holding on to their 2014 gains, then it would be costly indeed for Ukraine to win in Donbas.
If this is the plan they are even willing to trade off areas in Russia to achieve it.
This is so baffling that it just can't be a part of any plan.
Moscow
I know I sound like a madman stating that Putin is most likely dead and have been that for a while.
But, let me paint a picture, and have the baffling parts of the above in mind while you read, and let us assume he is dead.
We do know that there has evolved 3 groups of ex-putin advisors, The Siloviki (FSB, GRU, etcetera), The civil servants (Lavrov, Peskov, Medvedev and Mishustin), and lastly the army group led by Soyghurt and Gerasimov.
The news that the FSB is purging the leadership of Putins Rosgvardia means that Putin is no longer in control, there is no way in hell he would let the FSB purge his loyal guards and his private army.
No way, ever. He used them to keep control over the FSB and the Army.
This move is strengthening the Siloviki quite a bit, leaving them with the army as the only large contender, and they are out in Ukraine, and it weakens the civil servant faction significantly.
This leaves Wagner and the Kadyrovites as the only opposing forces to the Siloviki.
Kadyrov is sitting still in the boat, he also has problems at home with increasing signs of a revolt brewing.
Prigozhin is trying to be a viable option, but without support from any faction he is a gonner as soon as things get hot, and he knows this.
Hence his African ventures.
All of this means that for the last 4 months or so nobody has been leading Russia.
Hence no new political orders, hence no reactions to what Ukraine is doing, just a blind stupid dogged attempt to fulfill the last order of their former leader.
Losing Ukraine completely in a way that grinds down the army is just strengthening the SIloviki, but also the civil servant faction.
Losing a few Oblasts? Russia is big, incredibly big.
And Ukraine will either way not get to keep them as and when there is a peace settlement, the West will make certain of that.
And if not? Well, 3 Oblasts is unimportant when you can win Moscow itself, and in Russia only Moscow counts.
So, what is Russia up to during a big war that might be more important than the war itself?
The Great Game of Thrones and Chess
On the 17th of March 2024 there is a Presidential election.
All parties seem to be quite happy to keep the charade going until then.
In december a Putin will go up on the stage and state that he will not run for the election due to old age, herpes, syphilis, or any other reason that is somewhat believable to the general gullible Russian audience.
To legitimise the new leadership there will be the need of an election.
There will be several candidates.
Some will be pure filling material, and each faction will put forth a candidate, or even several.
Heck, they will probably throw in a real opposition candidate to make it even more credible.
Why the election?
All sides know that if they go to solving the leadership crisis with guns blasing Russia is gone.
They need a candidate that can bring back the good old days with all the gold splendour of the tzars, but with a democratic chimera in the beginning.
Initially there will be a bewildering plethora of serious, unserious, and token candidates.
But, in the end at the first round it will be far fewer candidates.
Here is the list that I think will run:
-Peskov
-Mishustin
-Soyghurt
-Medvedev
-Strelkov
-Kadyrov
-Prigozhin (unless he is killed first)
And then an oppossition leader.
By then Navalny will be dead.
So, as he declares that he would like to run, they will comb the hair of Vladimir Kara-Murza and pardon him.
The Siloviki candidates are Peskov and Mishustin.
Soyghurt will represent the army.
Medvedev and Strelkov are the Siloviki candidates.
Kadyrov and Prigozhin will take the role of the independent alternatives without a chance in hell.
And Kara-Murza will be the opposition leader carrying the torch of the Nemtsovian movement and backed by every other opposition leader extant except Navalny who will be dead (at least I hope so).
From December onwards the list will shrink as Mishustin bows out in favour of Peskov, Soyghurt will continue, and Medvedev will go back to being a drunk and Strelkov moves onwards.
Prigozhin will either die, or give up leaving Kadyrov as the free mover.
And Kara-Murza will get stronger.
In the election this will be the result of the first round:
1. Strelkov
2. Kara-Murza
3. Peskov
4. Soyghurt
5. Kadyrov
On the second round Strelkov will walk away with about 10.53 percent more votes than Kara-Murza.
Obviously this has nothing to do with how people actually vote, it is Russia after all.
But, it looks good to have the new Tzar winning over the champion of democracy with a comfortable, but still realistic margin.
Heck, it is Russia, it might not even be far from how the chips would fall in a real election after all.
In other words, nobody is interested in the war any longer, they are all busy playin chess for the throne.
Oh, and note how healthy and well nourished Kara-Murza looked when he was sentenced to 25 years...
Navalny looked like **** during sentencing, and is getting worse by the month...
No, Russia will need Kara-Murza well and alive.
Look, we are not bad, we even pardoned the great democratic leader to make it a fair election... etcetera.
It is all now stage setting for the only battle that matters to Moscow, the battle for Moscow itself.
And the war is letting FSB control everything since the army is occupied."
And then (sorry for this) today ... some factual updates.
"
One can say one thing for sure about the war at this stage, and that is that the weather is not cooperating with Ukraine right now.
Instead General Mud has once more decended upon the battlefield victoriously.
Belgorod Correction
It was sort of not Ukraine that went on the offensive.
What happened was that the Ukrainians massaged the Russians, both at depth and across the frontline, this was successful enough for the Russians holding the border to come up with a terrific idea.
They upped and abouted and left for the far nicer trenches that the Belgorod Militia had dug right outside of the City of Belgorod.
The Russian soldiers are now able to go and get food, and buy vodka, at their own leisure.
If this was authorised by Russian command is at this point unknown, but I do think it was the local soldiers own idea.
This has left a rather hefty Greyzone inside of Russia that at around Belgorod City is 30 kilometres deep.
A few Ukrainian units have taken it upon themselves to go in force to take selfies around the area and generally bullying Russia with images of them drinking tea and eating cookies infront of signs that says Belgorod 6km etcetera.
Now and then Russia is sending out patrols to try and chase the "tourists" away from mother Russia.
This has obviously led to sporadic clashes.
Neither side has control right now, and it seems like Ukraine is quite baffled about what to do about it.
It is one thing with Ukrainian soldiers going on vacation there taking selfies with Russian Babushkies and roadsigns, another to take Belgorod it seems.
I think Ukraine hopes that if enough selfies are taken, Russia will have to reinforce the area.
But, so far Russia is still trying to satisfy themselves sexually with Bakhmut.
A humorous report came from a village where a few fine upstanding Russian men had drunk oodles of vodka and started a fight amongst themselves.
The villagers flagged down a Ukrainian unit to deal with them...
Sometimes during a war, really weird things will happen.
The Weirdest part is how happy the Babushkies look on the selfies...
Bakhmut
Russia has in the last 24 hours moved in two brigades from Luhansk to reinforce the Northern flank at Bakhmut, and two more Brigades from Donetsk City to reinforce the Southern flank.
With about 10-15 percent of Bakhmut left to take it seems that Russia is truly going for broke here.
All that Ukraine need to do is hold things for 10 days until the weather has cleared up and the ground is drying, and Bakhmut has well and truly served it's purpose.
Russia is already talking openly about taking Chasiv Yar next, and that will take almost as long time as Bakhmut itself.
I hope Russia stick to this plan, because then they will be truly and stupendously buggered.
Nothing new has happened at Avdiivka and Vuhledar, Ukraine is struggling with the mud at the first place, and in Vuhledar they do the time honoured artillery pounding while eating borstj.
Zhaporizhzhia
This has also turned into a large Greyzone since Ukraine is not really interested in fighting General Mud, and the Russians are happy in their new trenches that so far are free from rotting corpses.
The general Russian movement is still in the direction of Donbas with all deep reserve forces, even though there are signs that this particular lunacy is slowing down.
In the Greyzone small patrols from both sides drive around patroling the roads.
Crimea
During the night both aerial and aquatic drones struck home at Sevastopol, and there are videos of large explosions in the Naval base.
No photage is yet available of what was deconstructed there.
Other installations was also hit, but with varying degrees of success.
Moscow
Before we go to the main fireworks, let us do Moscow.
On the 9th of May Moscow will supposedly hold the Victory Parade.
A Ukrainian oligarch has promised to pay out half a million US dollars to anyone who can land a drone with Ukrainian propaganda on it during said parade.
During the day several videos was uploaded of drones merrily buzing about over the Red Square unmolested.
Regardless of Ukrainian propaganda drones, all other Victory Day parades are cancelled all over Russia, citing security reasons.
One probable reason is that Russia does not have equipment and men enough to perform them.
Another reason is that according to Russian sources they fear civil unrest over the number of killed, and that the parades would erupt into protests.
The Moscow Parade is turning into a very sad event.
First they banned the Immortal Legion Parade part, then the air show, then it shrunk some more...
And right now there is even confusion about if it has been cancelled outright.
If it is cancelled the murmurs in Moscow that not everything is right in Russia will get quite a bit of kindling for a fire.
Cancelling the most important event on the Russian social calender is just unheard of, it will be writ large in the sky that something has gone truly and spectacularly sideways for Russia.
It is still a day off in Russia, and Russia will be drunk... things may get very interesting.
Kherson
After taking the bridgehead downstream of Nova Kakhovka Ukraine has spread out along the riverbanks, and invards towards Nova Kakhovka itself, this means that Ukraine now is holding key property, and if they can push the Russians out of Nova Kakhovka they have enough depth to rebuild the dam (they might already be doing it) or risk losing a lot of engineering troops from Russian artillery fire.
Repairing the dam road will be quick work, all that is needed is driving in enough dump truck loads of bolders and gravel to fill the road gaps, and they have a functioning bridge.
Antonivka Bridge, here the Ukrainians have spread out far and are fighting in Olechky and have taken the old Bridge landing and moved onwards to the train bridge (that is also partially broken).
Ukraine are ferrying over more troops and equipment as fast as can be done with the boats and ferries that they have at hand, and each night more boats, barges and ferries arrive to increase the speed.
It is surprising that Russia still has not sent forward reinforcements to try to stop this.
Over at Kinburn the same thing is going on with new troops arriving each night by barges and small ships that have been jurryrigged as landing crafts.
The barges was run up on the sandy beach and tied off to each other and there is a small port forming on the sat pictures.
At the same time Ukrainian artillery are pouring it over the Russians, and the only viable access road for the Russians to Kinburn.
The Ukrainians are slowly spreading outwards here too.
In Kherson it is important to remember that Ukraine always expected to fight in mud initially, regardless of the weather.
So, they came prepared for it.
This does not necessarily mean that this was intended as the main attack, or at least as one of them.
The original idea was obviously to have a simultaneous Ukrainian offensive over at Zhaporizhzhia to make certain that Kherson could not be reinforced.
Due to Russian strategic stupidity it is though working regardless, since Russian is not reinforcing anything except their beloved Bakhmut.
Russian Generals?
A former colleague of mine pointed out today something that I had missed somehow.
There are almost no Russian generals.
Even prior to the war there was very few generals that had gone the long road through military school, officer school, colonel school, and general school.
Instead Russia favours toadies and generally fun people to party with.
Just as a reminder, Kadyrov is a Russian general... let that sink in.
Gerasimovs son was a general, even though he did not even attend colonel school.
And it just goes on and on.
So, unless Russia is pressganging oldtimers from the Soviet era, they are almost out of real generals.
If we look away from the Air Force Generals and the Navy (that has Admirals), there are two in the Far East, and 5 for the rest of Russia.
3 of them are in Ukraine, Surovikin was fired and moved to the Air Defence Force, and Gerasimov himself.
7 real generals...
Lapin is a dungbeetle according to sources, and the other two become real generals because they completely lack any spine.
Surovikin tried to do the job as best as he could shunting political orders to the side as much as he could, but these 3 will not do that.
Gerasimov is drunk and has mental issues after his son was blown up.
That leaves basically the "generals" running the show, and they blindly follow their order to take Bakhmut and Donbas, and with no new order arriving, that is what they will do until the last Russian soldier has died.
5 generals for a war, 1 is unstable, 1 was fired, 1 was fired and rehired (Lapin) and two that are less than good.
Talk about overloaded generals.
As I caught on to this I understand better what is happening on the Russian side of the war.
Russia is indeed a zombie army milling about trying to find a brain to eat, because they have already eaten their own brains.
I feel sorry for any future historian that will have to explain in a thick toome what the hell happened.
On top of that our future historians will have to explain Memewars, NAFO and 3D-printed pink dildo grenades being dropped into trenches.
The war is a tragicomedy taken to the nth-degree."
I know him well enought to know that this last comment (obvs there is no comedy) is just him dealing with grimness.
This was the situation 6 days ago (maps are updated in arrears for OPSEC.
Latest word is that Tokmak is now a grey zone, so UAF have made good headway on that axis.
El Guapo
Well-known member
No words.
Druss_The_Legend
Well-known member
Swedish ex-MP joins Ukraine’s Armed Forces - Ukrainian World Congress
www.ukrainianworldcongress.org
Read this yesterday but forgot to post. An ex Swedish MP has joined the foreign legion in Ukraine.Swedish ex-MP joins Ukraine’s Armed Forces - Ukrainian World Congress
I believe there are a lot of Swedes out there. Some of their "special forces" who served as UN troops in the cesspit of central Africa are unfit to be assimilated back innto normal life, because of what they have experienced. They went out there quite early as "volunteers" and made it their business to tackle the Russian Spetsnas/elite special forces head on. They did a hell of a lot of damage.
Anyway, another short update prompted by Mardan's recent speech on China, as well as progress on the front.
"I was just waiting for Russia to pull the China card.
For reference Mardan is the less screemy, but totally xenophobic, and still more intellectual propagandist.
Where he goes, the other's will follow.
There is an utterly warped logic to Russia setting up China as a stoge for moving their army out of Ukraine and making "peace" in Ukraine and pointing out China as the new big enemy.
This would sort of make sense with what we are seeing in Ukraine.
Ukraine
The increased and improved Ukrainian artillery in Bakhmut is now taking hold over the situation.
During the last 48 hours Russian attacks have decreased to a standstill.
In Zhaporizhzhia there is very little resistance, so much so that Ukraine is taking it fairly easy and are taking time to more carefully deconstruct the minefields as they go.
To everyones surprise the Russians seem to be leaving the Surovikin line in Tokmak, and there are no real signs of Russia intending to use the Surovikin line infront of Melitopol or Berdyansk.
Increasingly it is looking like Russia is just going to abandon Zhaporizhzhia in a "Goodwill Gesture".
Ukraine is obviously taking time to massaging the Russians to hurry them along as they go.
In Kherson Russia seems to try to hold the Ukrainians back to have time to move out their heavy equipment towards Crimea.
Currently I am getting more certain by the day that they will try to hold on to the holdings that they took in 2014, and no more.
Obviously this is not impressing Ukraine a lot, and they will press home the attack and try to take back Donbass and Crimea.
This falling back in a glorious offensive goodwill gesture explains the very low deathrate among the Russians.
I had expected dead to hit 2000 per day or higher, instead it has dropped.
Strategically it is sound to concentrate limited troops and resources on a smaller area, but the same is true for Ukraine, so the gain for the Russians will be limited in doing these large scale withdrawals.
There is also the option that Russia will just keep on meandering back home to slam the door shut in the face of Ukraine, leaving Ukraine completely.
If so Mardans ramblings is making sense, where else would Russia find that 1.5 million men army?"
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
While I have no idea of military stuff surely they will also want to hold the land bridge to Crimea - to make it easier to supply and defend?
I would think the UAF will be cutting all those road and rail supply routes anyway.