The weirdest thing is the hug. The closeness. Putin is paranoid about close contact.
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
The weirdest thing is the hug. The closeness. Putin is paranoid about close contact.
jonny_greenings_sock
Well-known member
Conjecture, but got me thinking since our guy sings the praises of the military genius of Ukraine and how by any measure they’re over-performing as an armed force.
One would assume that from day one, since western troops on the ground is very bad / WWIII starter, that Ukraine have access to the very best in military intelligence that the west can offer, since this is way easier to deny. I also assumed that they would be led tactically on the ground by the best of the west. Almost a classic proxy war with the cream of US / UK / NATO special forces telling the Ukrainian army what to do.
Basically the same as Iraq and Syria vs ISIS, but with extremely highly motivated local soldiers.
May explain why Ukraine are tactically so good and doing unpredictable things.
One would assume that from day one, since western troops on the ground is very bad / WWIII starter, that Ukraine have access to the very best in military intelligence that the west can offer, since this is way easier to deny. I also assumed that they would be led tactically on the ground by the best of the west. Almost a classic proxy war with the cream of US / UK / NATO special forces telling the Ukrainian army what to do.
Basically the same as Iraq and Syria vs ISIS, but with extremely highly motivated local soldiers.
May explain why Ukraine are tactically so good and doing unpredictable things.
Oh without doubt.. Every metre will be covered with our satelites.
Every movement of Russian hardware will be known.
Co-ordinates will be sent for precision artilery strikes and adjusted to correct any errors
Troop concentrations will be fed 'live' so that units can be moved away from danger
Russian artilery success will be monitored and these units prioritised for strikes
The war front is effectively a no fly zone for fighter/bomber aircraft.
On the ground the Russians will already know this and will need to make a personal choice... do I fire and die?
And all this without the assets within Russia and in occupied areas of Ukraine feeding intel constantly.
Supply lines will be targetted constantly wil intel fed 'live' on whats heading to the front when and where..... and they're getting wiped out rendering the Russian forces without hardware, ammo and they're cold, hungry and demoralised.
I guess one of the difficulties will be reigning the Ukraine army in to not charge forward too fast too soon and over extend their supply lines.
All of that said you still need motivated and disciplined manpower, but success breeds that and it's a snowball that just keeps growing.
I'd say Putin has made one of the biggest military blunders ever seen in modern history. IMO it's up there with Hitler's decision to attack Russia.
For the USA/UK/EU it's an opportunity of generation, destroy an enemy while getting somebody else to do the killing and dying for you..... and they're taking it with relish.
Comedy subtitles, but it does demonstrate full awareness of his sickness. Even the last line is ironic.
In reply to JGS and zzzzz, the Ukrainian commanders definitely do benefit from Western intel and are to some extent directed in what they can and can't do with the weapons they are given. Many were also trained by the west (some trained by our man, but those would be tank commanders). He seems to think that they are making a lot of their own very astute tactical decisions though.
Anyway, following Konstantin last night, our man seems to have spent last night getting misty eyed about trains.
"This time I will stay away from the explosive side of the war and instead concetrate on two things.
The first is based on Russia being stupendously big.
The second part is the economic warfare waged on Russia.
Many people are stating that the sanctions and other actions are not working.
What they are not understanding is that economic warfare, like all other warfare, is all about attrition over time.
At the frontlines we see Ukraine pounding away for weeks with seemingly no effect, and all of a sudden Russia collapses.
That is attrition for you.
But, let us focus on size.
Russia is dependent on trains and airplanes to be run, governed and keeping it's economy running.
It is also all important for the diminutive Russian logistics effort (well, diminutive by western standards, enormous by Russian standards).
The war in itself cut Russian rail capacity by half, and took 30 percent of all available commercial aviation.
This is a massive hit unto itself to the Russian economy.
Problem is that Russia is no longer building critical parts of their trains and railway control systems.
Nor is Russia building civilian aircraft. Yes, I know that Russia brags about it's Superjet, but the thing is that it is mostly built using western parts.
Russia builds railway freight carriages, but not the ball-bearings that are used.
Russia does not build locomotives.
And the Russian rail line is run by Siemens control units.
Let me take an example.
Sapsan high speed trains are built by Siemens, in the west they are called Volaro.
The most famous route is Moscow to St Petersburg, those trains are rolling today.
But, the four trains that ran the Moscow to Perm line was pulled from service and cannibalised for parts. Instead Perm to Moscow is now run by old Russian locomotives and carriages.
The Perm to Yekaterinburg used other modern Siemens built trains. Well, that line was pulled completely without any replacement.
Satellite images show that 30 percent of all rolling stock in Russia are at standstill in depots due to lack of parts and maintenance. Parts that Russia can no longer produce.
And Russia is giving the advantage to the military side, and to heck with commuting Russians and economy.
Airplanes? 50 percent of the poorely made Superjets are now grounded and being cannibalised for spare parts.
20 percent of the Boeings and Airbuses are grounded and being stripped for parts.
Now, Russia is big, really big.
And the rail network that has been built, maintaned and expanded upon since the days of the Tzars are breaking down.
In Russia trains are life itself. And that life is draining out of the bleeding arteries of Russia.
And we are seeing entire train routes go out of business.
In the end this is what will break the Russian economy, one train at a time.
Attrition.
At the same time computer after computer is breaking, phone after phone.
Nothing, or at least very little to replace them with. Just a tiny trickle from China and neighbouring countries. Definitely not enough to make a difference.
So, parts from one phone repairs another. Two computers become one computer.
The electronics carrying the modern civilisation falling on the altar of attrition.
9 months into the war we are seeing attrition taking it's toll. Question is not if, question is when an entire region of the economy collapses due to this.
The attrition of logistics and electronics are chipping away at the foundation of the Russian industrial economy.
Slowly the factories are missing spareparts, supplies, computers to run the machines.
Attrition is the gravel entering the machine of the Russian state.
Money? They have attrited away on the altar of the gas war against the west.
The entire Russian sovereign fund is now gone.
There is no longer any money in Russia, the government can no longer pay the soldiers.
All they can do is print new money, and that will lower the Rouble, and the leadership does not want that.
So, instead new taxes and tax increases, lowering of government salaries, unpaid soldiers.
Attrition.
Very soon the Russian economy will face its Kherson, its Kharkiv, its Kyiv (If I was a Russian leader I would fear any City/Oblast starting with the letter K) and an entire sector collapses.
When will it happen?
Soon, one report I read yesterday stated that it would happen in 47 days.
I think they lost out on a few things, among them they underrated the importance of the size of Russia.
Be that as it may, it may come quicker, but in the end I think it has more with how much pain can Russians take (considerable) and how much pain can the failing industry and economy take?
I return here to the lessons I have learned from the war. Human bodies have lost in importance, and equipment increased in importance.
Regardless of the Russian propensity to endure hardship, the same is not true for economy and industry.
On the frontline it is the machines that are tougher than the human bodies, in economy and industry it is the opposite.
Entire chunks of Russia have started to fall of the map, or at least the railmaps.
Vorkuta? No roads, only rail. Are there even passenger trains now?
Trains, I think I will make a point of looking for tickets all over Russia.
Russia is falling apart, one train at a time.
Murder on the Orient Express is one of my many favourite books.
Murder of the Transsiberian Express is even more entertaining.
For thirty years I have dreamt about riding the Trans Siberian.
Proving I guess that you dream about what you can not have.
I have been looking forward to Putin going away, on the slim chance that my status will be changed and I will no longer be persona non grata. The joke now is that even without Putin it is likely that there will be no more Trans Siberian, or that it will be chopped up if Russia breaks apart.
I love reading books on trains while drinking tea and vodka while looking at bleak wooden houses and birches.
Pirogis, I looked forward to pirogis. And train borstj. I wanted to do it in the mid of January, stopping off in Russian frozen cities.
I have travelled the world, but Tobolsk is denied to me, same with Baikal-Amur. As a child I watched Soviet documentaries about the progress of the building of the BAM railway.
Meh...
I am digressing, I am rambling.
Time to sleep and dream about Tayshet Vokzal."
In reply to JGS and zzzzz, the Ukrainian commanders definitely do benefit from Western intel and are to some extent directed in what they can and can't do with the weapons they are given. Many were also trained by the west (some trained by our man, but those would be tank commanders). He seems to think that they are making a lot of their own very astute tactical decisions though.
Anyway, following Konstantin last night, our man seems to have spent last night getting misty eyed about trains.
"This time I will stay away from the explosive side of the war and instead concetrate on two things.
The first is based on Russia being stupendously big.
The second part is the economic warfare waged on Russia.
Many people are stating that the sanctions and other actions are not working.
What they are not understanding is that economic warfare, like all other warfare, is all about attrition over time.
At the frontlines we see Ukraine pounding away for weeks with seemingly no effect, and all of a sudden Russia collapses.
That is attrition for you.
But, let us focus on size.
Russia is dependent on trains and airplanes to be run, governed and keeping it's economy running.
It is also all important for the diminutive Russian logistics effort (well, diminutive by western standards, enormous by Russian standards).
The war in itself cut Russian rail capacity by half, and took 30 percent of all available commercial aviation.
This is a massive hit unto itself to the Russian economy.
Problem is that Russia is no longer building critical parts of their trains and railway control systems.
Nor is Russia building civilian aircraft. Yes, I know that Russia brags about it's Superjet, but the thing is that it is mostly built using western parts.
Russia builds railway freight carriages, but not the ball-bearings that are used.
Russia does not build locomotives.
And the Russian rail line is run by Siemens control units.
Let me take an example.
Sapsan high speed trains are built by Siemens, in the west they are called Volaro.
The most famous route is Moscow to St Petersburg, those trains are rolling today.
But, the four trains that ran the Moscow to Perm line was pulled from service and cannibalised for parts. Instead Perm to Moscow is now run by old Russian locomotives and carriages.
The Perm to Yekaterinburg used other modern Siemens built trains. Well, that line was pulled completely without any replacement.
Satellite images show that 30 percent of all rolling stock in Russia are at standstill in depots due to lack of parts and maintenance. Parts that Russia can no longer produce.
And Russia is giving the advantage to the military side, and to heck with commuting Russians and economy.
Airplanes? 50 percent of the poorely made Superjets are now grounded and being cannibalised for spare parts.
20 percent of the Boeings and Airbuses are grounded and being stripped for parts.
Now, Russia is big, really big.
And the rail network that has been built, maintaned and expanded upon since the days of the Tzars are breaking down.
In Russia trains are life itself. And that life is draining out of the bleeding arteries of Russia.
And we are seeing entire train routes go out of business.
In the end this is what will break the Russian economy, one train at a time.
Attrition.
At the same time computer after computer is breaking, phone after phone.
Nothing, or at least very little to replace them with. Just a tiny trickle from China and neighbouring countries. Definitely not enough to make a difference.
So, parts from one phone repairs another. Two computers become one computer.
The electronics carrying the modern civilisation falling on the altar of attrition.
9 months into the war we are seeing attrition taking it's toll. Question is not if, question is when an entire region of the economy collapses due to this.
The attrition of logistics and electronics are chipping away at the foundation of the Russian industrial economy.
Slowly the factories are missing spareparts, supplies, computers to run the machines.
Attrition is the gravel entering the machine of the Russian state.
Money? They have attrited away on the altar of the gas war against the west.
The entire Russian sovereign fund is now gone.
There is no longer any money in Russia, the government can no longer pay the soldiers.
All they can do is print new money, and that will lower the Rouble, and the leadership does not want that.
So, instead new taxes and tax increases, lowering of government salaries, unpaid soldiers.
Attrition.
Very soon the Russian economy will face its Kherson, its Kharkiv, its Kyiv (If I was a Russian leader I would fear any City/Oblast starting with the letter K) and an entire sector collapses.
When will it happen?
Soon, one report I read yesterday stated that it would happen in 47 days.
I think they lost out on a few things, among them they underrated the importance of the size of Russia.
Be that as it may, it may come quicker, but in the end I think it has more with how much pain can Russians take (considerable) and how much pain can the failing industry and economy take?
I return here to the lessons I have learned from the war. Human bodies have lost in importance, and equipment increased in importance.
Regardless of the Russian propensity to endure hardship, the same is not true for economy and industry.
On the frontline it is the machines that are tougher than the human bodies, in economy and industry it is the opposite.
Entire chunks of Russia have started to fall of the map, or at least the railmaps.
Vorkuta? No roads, only rail. Are there even passenger trains now?
Trains, I think I will make a point of looking for tickets all over Russia.
Russia is falling apart, one train at a time.
Murder on the Orient Express is one of my many favourite books.
Murder of the Transsiberian Express is even more entertaining.
For thirty years I have dreamt about riding the Trans Siberian.
Proving I guess that you dream about what you can not have.
I have been looking forward to Putin going away, on the slim chance that my status will be changed and I will no longer be persona non grata. The joke now is that even without Putin it is likely that there will be no more Trans Siberian, or that it will be chopped up if Russia breaks apart.
I love reading books on trains while drinking tea and vodka while looking at bleak wooden houses and birches.
Pirogis, I looked forward to pirogis. And train borstj. I wanted to do it in the mid of January, stopping off in Russian frozen cities.
I have travelled the world, but Tobolsk is denied to me, same with Baikal-Amur. As a child I watched Soviet documentaries about the progress of the building of the BAM railway.
Meh...
I am digressing, I am rambling.
Time to sleep and dream about Tayshet Vokzal."
Last edited:
MolteniArcore
Well-known member
@borolad259 Your man loves his borstj !!
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
Is he threatening them at the end
Hap
Well-known member
It's a spoof mate. The subtitles are made up.
Another friend of mine caused uproar in Russia with this article, written before the invasion. He received death threats from Russians and had Russian bots all over his twitter account. It's a cracking read anyway. He really knows his stuff.
Who really owns borsch?
To the average person, Russians broadcasting about borsch may seem obvious and innocuous, but not so for Ukrainians, who consider the soup to be their national dish.
www.bbc.com
jonny_greenings_sock
Well-known member
Thank you, fascinating stuff.
I assumed there’d be deniable special forces teams in there directing everything.
If there’s one thing I’ve learnt about the study of warfare from reading far too many war history and soldier books, it’s that a small amount of very highly trained professionals can make a lot of noise. Think I read that to train one special forces soldier costs about 1m USD, which reflects how powerful a tactical weapon they are.
Proxy wars are horrible, but agree zzzz… opportunity of a lifetime. Smash your biggest enemy of the last seventy years and pretend you’re not even doing it.
I assumed there’d be deniable special forces teams in there directing everything.
If there’s one thing I’ve learnt about the study of warfare from reading far too many war history and soldier books, it’s that a small amount of very highly trained professionals can make a lot of noise. Think I read that to train one special forces soldier costs about 1m USD, which reflects how powerful a tactical weapon they are.
Proxy wars are horrible, but agree zzzz… opportunity of a lifetime. Smash your biggest enemy of the last seventy years and pretend you’re not even doing it.
Uwefuchs
Well-known member
So we might soon be celebrating the complete collapse of the Russian economy and subsequently the end of war.
My question is what happens after that?
Will it be a Russian rebuild with a Western influence or a Russian rebuild propped by by China?
Or could we have a more aggressive nationalist version of Putin who takes over? A broken, wounded country with a grudge against the West and with another despot in charge of a huge nuclear arsenal sounds like a total nightmare.
My question is what happens after that?
Will it be a Russian rebuild with a Western influence or a Russian rebuild propped by by China?
Or could we have a more aggressive nationalist version of Putin who takes over? A broken, wounded country with a grudge against the West and with another despot in charge of a huge nuclear arsenal sounds like a total nightmare.
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
johnmfc
Member
I imagine their economy would be broke, and who ever takes over will not have the power to do anything anywhere. I think It is going to be decades before Russia will be able to financially recover. Unless ofcourse the twist is that China takes control of them.
If they want to re-build their economy and have sanctions relaxed, I suspect that they will need to have a west-friendly regime.
BoroMart
Well-known member
and of course the feedback loops on their battlefield processes are invaluable. They will be taking the success/failure feedback from ukrainian attacks and feeding it back in and refining how they identify targets and missions against russian forces to the point where the proposed 7 day war for NATO to defeat Russia, would be a 5 day war with even less NATO casualties.
BoroMart
Well-known member
If only that were true, he'd be utterly done by now
johnsmithsno2
Well-known member
Just read this on the BBC website. Thought far more Russians would have died...
Around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured since the war began on 24 February, according to the most senior US general, Mark Milley.
Around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured since the war began on 24 February, according to the most senior US general, Mark Milley.
The figures for Russian dead that come from Ukraine are battle field body counts, though they will be a substantial underestimate of the true figure. I don't know what that current tally is. It doesn't take into account those killed by missiles/artillery behind enemy lines, nor does it take into account those that die in hospitals. I would be surprised if the numbers weren't way in excess of 100,000. My mate might have a better idea. I'll ask. He has been snowed under with our work this last couple of days. He may have more time to write this weekend.