Updates from the front
"Luhansk
Here things are rapidly quieting down from the Russians as they are moving large units away from the Kupyansk sector down to Avdivka. (I will get back to that).
This means that Zyrskiy can take advantage and push home his little offensive and the perhaps even flatten out things a bit near Kreminna before Rasputitsa.
He also now have spare troops available for Bakhmut and Avdivka.
Bakhmut
There was two offensive axises here from Kliichivka.
One towards Odraivka and the other towards Mykolaivka Druha.
According to reports from the commander the offensives was unusually easy and the assigned fields was taken in record time.
He mentioned the lack of reinforcements now having a significant effect.
And, he also mentioned Russia using no artillery to stop their advancement.
Tokmakish
UAF now pushing hard towards Kopani again, this time from the North where they're trying to take Nestarianka.
They took the field yesterday in front of Nestarianka, and today pushing down the field west of the Village since that would give them the village in a pocket.
And if Nestarianka falls they can push to Myrne and attack Kopani directly from the North.
This attack was enabled by the lack of Russian reinforcements in the area.
Something that we are seeing everywhere now.
I will get to why in the end.
Kherson
The new crossing towards Pidstepne is going very well so far.
For two days running the Marines and Infantry have taken control of areas between the river bank and the road.
The grey zone is far larger than the maps give at hand.
Note that Russian aviation is bombing Pidstepne itself in an attempt to take back the village from the forces that took it.
The village was almost undefended, so it is not a large Ukrainian group holding it, hence it still being "grey".
Russia resorting to using aerial bombs speaks volumes of the lack of troops in the area.
Remember that most of their available troops are in pitched battle in the Poima direction and over at Oleshky.
Yesterdays advance was towards the East from the initial landing spot, and it is this time an uphill battle with the 43 meter line beaing breached.
The goal is to take this hill with it's escarpment of 103-114 meters towards the river, with that cleared it would be much harder for the Russian artillery to hold back a larger transfer of soldiers.
As such this is by far the most serious landing to date.
Avdivka
I spent the night and morning in the forward command as we planned for new trenches on the north side so that we can hold Russia back behind the railway line.
Weirdly enough the Russians are also digging in now on the North along the entire bulge.
The Russian trench network is rather massive in a Surovikin Line style, complete with oodles of ineffective dragon's teeth.
To the North the bulk of the Russian forces are spent, and the few attack they have done has mainly been smaller groups with just one or two BMPs.
It had the feeling of more being an attempt to keep us occupied while they dig like maniacs on their trences, and to disturb us while we dig ours.
We definitely have the upper hand now on the artillery side on the Northern flank, and we also have a sollid armour advantage, this is giving opportunities for later on if the weather holds a bit.
What is even more interesting is that Russia for now does not seem interested in reinforcing any more on this side.
It is a bit curious, it is after all not like we do not have resources around there to do a counter-attack or two.
It is in the South that things are moving from tough to tougher.
It was here that I intended to counter-attack them, but all of those reallocated troops from Luhansk are moving here, or have already arrived.
This is now where we expect the next big push.
Those forces brought more equipment, artillery, and even some bridging equipment.
The next few days will be interesting I think, it will be when the battle of Avdivka is won, or lost.
Heck, even the entire war can be won here, let me explain.
Russia is moving in as much forces as they have used up in total in Avdivka in the last few weeks.
Ie., they are moving in their entire battle capable and offensive capable remaining army, and all of the associated gear.
If we can break them here, then they will be without offensive units for quite some time.
And without a large portion of their more modern stuff for a very long time.
And here is my point, even if we in the end have to step back from Avdivka we will have good opportunities to hold the new line that is already prepared.
Yes, Avdivka is a pain in the **** for Russia, but we have more pains in the **** of Russia in other spots like in Marinka, and we are on the offensive in pretty much every other sector.
So, it would for us be a minor loss, and almost no gain for Russia really.
It would also be the definition of a pyrrhiv victory, the last and final horay of the falling empire.
Because their fixation on Avdivka has been highly detrimental for their war effort in ALL other sectors, Luhansk, Bakhmut, Marinka, Tokmakish, Kherson... and a few bits and bobs in between.
They are being pushed back ever so slowly everywhere, to gain a few square kilometres near Donetsk City.
And it is not even securing Donetsk City due to us holding Vuhledar to Marinka line, a far better way to offend the Donetskians.
That being said, I enjoy being a rectal pain of the Russians, and so does every single Ukrainian, so holding on to Avdivka is a priority since the Russians are doing such a great job at demilitarising themselves against it.
So, holding is for now the main priority.
Conclusion
Russia is currently losing the war due to Avdivka.
In Tokmakish Russian defence is buckling due to lack of reinforcements.
In Kherson they are very near to being under a full-scale invasion due to lack of reinforcements."
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