WeeGord
Well-known member
There's rumours circulating that Putin had a heart attack last night. It's to be taken with a pinch of salt but would be interesting if your man has heard anything @borolad259
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Will ask.
Meanwhile, the fronts
"After the Russian insanity at Avdivka, that is still ongoing, the Russian army has spent to many and several parts of the frontline is either cracking or collapsing.
Luhansk
Lots to unpack here.
Remember that this is supposedly the area with the largest remaining force of Russia.
In the Svatove direction just North of Orlyan'ske a wedge was driven in that was 1km deep and 1km wide by a minor force that noticed a gap in the Russian defence.
It will be highly interesting to see if Russia can muster a counter attack here.
Ukraine is now reinforcing here to either counter a counter-offensive, or to drive in a larger wedge.
Right to the South of the wedge the Russians are continuing meatwave attacks trying to make a nipple, without any success whatsoever.
Note that the attempts to make a nipple is 2km away from where the wedge was driven in, and so far the Russians have performed 2 more meatwaves with their Northern flank totally undercut.
There are mistakes, and then there is insane levels of stupidity, this is the latter.
About 20 km South of Orlyans'ke, but still towards Svatove, the village of Serhiivka was attacked with grounds gained, once again the attack was due to a hole in the Russian defence line, and once again surprised. Ukrainian unit is getting reinforcements.
Serhiivka was taken by the Russians about 2 months ago and is now seemingly being returned on the cheap.
Note that both attacks was instigated by, "where did the Russians go?" moments by local commanders.
Avdivka
Parts of the 21st and one of Zurskiys infantry brigades combined and struck the northern pincer North of Krasnahorivka and pushed back a 1.5km long section of the front about 250 meters.
Above that the units from the two brigades also took land going South from Oleksandropil on the bulge towards Novobakhmutivka, about 1km by 350 meters was gained.
On the southern pincer we attacked from Pervo'maiske all the way to the outskirts of Piske.
This has completely undercut the flank of the attacking forces, and heavy fighting is now ongoing there with shell expenditure having gone up in total for Avdivka 3-fold from already very high numbers.
While having their ass eaten the Russians continued like clueless lemmings with their meatwave attacks instead of reinforcing against the offensive forces in their rear.
In Avdivka Russia used license-built Ford-trucks from the second world war.
They are exceedingly rare nowadays, and one of them was auctioned out for 2.4 million dollars 3 years ago.
And ten of them was destroyed here, it is somewhat likely that they were taken from museums since no other extant examples was known to be in existance without the need of large amounts of rebuilding.
The Russian main goal was once again Terrakon, and they deployed 24 tanks to support two infantry meatwaves spaced just a couple of hours apart.
The bulk of the tanks was used in the second wave, the first used mostly BTRs/BMPs and few tanks.
The first wave secured the land towards the Terrakon since there are no Ukrainian soldiers infront of it, and the second attempted to drive home the attack on Terrakon, it was here that the Russians used the WWII-trucks.
This in turn emptied out the flanks giving the opportunity to counterstrike above.
Reports that Ukraine no longer hold Terrakon is not true, but the defences have been severely weakened and the place must be reinforced.
Tokmakish
Oleksandr pushed fast and hard once again towards Kopani from the Robotyne direction in an attempt to draw the Russian attention.
I hope that the commanders down here have a bit more of awareness compared to their Eastern rather blind brethren.
If they do that convoy should diver.
Kherson
Currently no large updates, only thing I can say that local reinforcements have arrived and there are heavy fights ongoing.
Sevastopol
The Port infrastructure of Sevastopol bravely stopped a Ukrainian missile by hitting it with itself.
Big boom followed as said port infrastructure exploded as it hit the evil missile.
Much rejoicing in Russia since targets are now destroying missiles themselves, so that they can save on their air defence missiles.
Ka-52
According to "source" and corroborated as well as possible by images, Russia has lost 72 percent of their Ka-52s in the war.
Russia could only build 4 per year prior to the war, and now they can't get the avionics packages since they are western made, so production is either zero, or they skip modern avionics.
My bet would be zero since they do not even seem to produce spare parts any longer.
Convoy
We still do not have any news about where it is going, but we have at a minimum attrited 5 percent of it and delayed it 1 day so far.
Update: Just as I was about to push the send button confirmation came in that the heavy mech brigade turned towards the Tokmak front.
Yes, it is possible to go to Kherson from Tokmak, but it is a path not usually used by Russia since the Northern road is under Ukrainian tubed artillery range.
Units for Kherson normally go via Melitopol.
We are happy with this, but we continue to cut them down and delay them to give Oleksandr a bit of a breather before they arrive, the less that arrive the better.
Also, right now they will arrive very piecemeal since several parts of the convoy is temporarily stuck behind damaged bridges.
China Navy News
Oh boy...
China began by a Chinese Coast Guard Corvette running into a Philippinian civilian ship that it was trying to run out of contested waters (belong to the Philippines according to everyone but China).
Expect a bit of ruccus here in the next couple of weeks.
Then China stated that they are sending 6(!) ships to the Mediterranean to "monitor" the Israel/Hamas conflict.
Nobody can grasp why China is doing this since they are basically on nobody's side in that conflict.
In fact, they are probably one of the last remaining neutrals on the matter.
My guess is that they are just planning to d*ck about and wave a bit of a flag.
The other option is that they are gonna offer to do something useful since they are not arsebothered if someone is Jewish or Palestinian.
It is here good to remember that Chinese are uniformly racist against anyone that is not Chinese.
Obviously neither the EU, nor the US will take this lightly since the Med is seen as our bathtub to play in as we wish.
It is as far as I know the first time China has sent a naval force that far into troubled waters, something so hard to do that it is not even certain it will even arrive without practicing it first, and China has not practiced sending an entire navy before.
In regards of Russian conference call.
It was due to the drastic losses along most of the frontline that instigated it, and losing ground all of a sudden did not make them happier.
If we can just keep it up for only a 2-6 weeks more we will go into Rasputitsa in a very good condition."
"After the Russian insanity at Avdivka, that is still ongoing, the Russian army has spent to many and several parts of the frontline is either cracking or collapsing.
Luhansk
Lots to unpack here.
Remember that this is supposedly the area with the largest remaining force of Russia.
In the Svatove direction just North of Orlyan'ske a wedge was driven in that was 1km deep and 1km wide by a minor force that noticed a gap in the Russian defence.
It will be highly interesting to see if Russia can muster a counter attack here.
Ukraine is now reinforcing here to either counter a counter-offensive, or to drive in a larger wedge.
Right to the South of the wedge the Russians are continuing meatwave attacks trying to make a nipple, without any success whatsoever.
Note that the attempts to make a nipple is 2km away from where the wedge was driven in, and so far the Russians have performed 2 more meatwaves with their Northern flank totally undercut.
There are mistakes, and then there is insane levels of stupidity, this is the latter.
About 20 km South of Orlyans'ke, but still towards Svatove, the village of Serhiivka was attacked with grounds gained, once again the attack was due to a hole in the Russian defence line, and once again surprised. Ukrainian unit is getting reinforcements.
Serhiivka was taken by the Russians about 2 months ago and is now seemingly being returned on the cheap.
Note that both attacks was instigated by, "where did the Russians go?" moments by local commanders.
Avdivka
Parts of the 21st and one of Zurskiys infantry brigades combined and struck the northern pincer North of Krasnahorivka and pushed back a 1.5km long section of the front about 250 meters.
Above that the units from the two brigades also took land going South from Oleksandropil on the bulge towards Novobakhmutivka, about 1km by 350 meters was gained.
On the southern pincer we attacked from Pervo'maiske all the way to the outskirts of Piske.
This has completely undercut the flank of the attacking forces, and heavy fighting is now ongoing there with shell expenditure having gone up in total for Avdivka 3-fold from already very high numbers.
While having their ass eaten the Russians continued like clueless lemmings with their meatwave attacks instead of reinforcing against the offensive forces in their rear.
In Avdivka Russia used license-built Ford-trucks from the second world war.
They are exceedingly rare nowadays, and one of them was auctioned out for 2.4 million dollars 3 years ago.
And ten of them was destroyed here, it is somewhat likely that they were taken from museums since no other extant examples was known to be in existance without the need of large amounts of rebuilding.
The Russian main goal was once again Terrakon, and they deployed 24 tanks to support two infantry meatwaves spaced just a couple of hours apart.
The bulk of the tanks was used in the second wave, the first used mostly BTRs/BMPs and few tanks.
The first wave secured the land towards the Terrakon since there are no Ukrainian soldiers infront of it, and the second attempted to drive home the attack on Terrakon, it was here that the Russians used the WWII-trucks.
This in turn emptied out the flanks giving the opportunity to counterstrike above.
Reports that Ukraine no longer hold Terrakon is not true, but the defences have been severely weakened and the place must be reinforced.
Tokmakish
Oleksandr pushed fast and hard once again towards Kopani from the Robotyne direction in an attempt to draw the Russian attention.
I hope that the commanders down here have a bit more of awareness compared to their Eastern rather blind brethren.
If they do that convoy should diver.
Kherson
Currently no large updates, only thing I can say that local reinforcements have arrived and there are heavy fights ongoing.
Sevastopol
The Port infrastructure of Sevastopol bravely stopped a Ukrainian missile by hitting it with itself.
Big boom followed as said port infrastructure exploded as it hit the evil missile.
Much rejoicing in Russia since targets are now destroying missiles themselves, so that they can save on their air defence missiles.
Ka-52
According to "source" and corroborated as well as possible by images, Russia has lost 72 percent of their Ka-52s in the war.
Russia could only build 4 per year prior to the war, and now they can't get the avionics packages since they are western made, so production is either zero, or they skip modern avionics.
My bet would be zero since they do not even seem to produce spare parts any longer.
Convoy
We still do not have any news about where it is going, but we have at a minimum attrited 5 percent of it and delayed it 1 day so far.
Update: Just as I was about to push the send button confirmation came in that the heavy mech brigade turned towards the Tokmak front.
Yes, it is possible to go to Kherson from Tokmak, but it is a path not usually used by Russia since the Northern road is under Ukrainian tubed artillery range.
Units for Kherson normally go via Melitopol.
We are happy with this, but we continue to cut them down and delay them to give Oleksandr a bit of a breather before they arrive, the less that arrive the better.
Also, right now they will arrive very piecemeal since several parts of the convoy is temporarily stuck behind damaged bridges.
China Navy News
Oh boy...
China began by a Chinese Coast Guard Corvette running into a Philippinian civilian ship that it was trying to run out of contested waters (belong to the Philippines according to everyone but China).
Expect a bit of ruccus here in the next couple of weeks.
Then China stated that they are sending 6(!) ships to the Mediterranean to "monitor" the Israel/Hamas conflict.
Nobody can grasp why China is doing this since they are basically on nobody's side in that conflict.
In fact, they are probably one of the last remaining neutrals on the matter.
My guess is that they are just planning to d*ck about and wave a bit of a flag.
The other option is that they are gonna offer to do something useful since they are not arsebothered if someone is Jewish or Palestinian.
It is here good to remember that Chinese are uniformly racist against anyone that is not Chinese.
Obviously neither the EU, nor the US will take this lightly since the Med is seen as our bathtub to play in as we wish.
It is as far as I know the first time China has sent a naval force that far into troubled waters, something so hard to do that it is not even certain it will even arrive without practicing it first, and China has not practiced sending an entire navy before.
In regards of Russian conference call.
It was due to the drastic losses along most of the frontline that instigated it, and losing ground all of a sudden did not make them happier.
If we can just keep it up for only a 2-6 weeks more we will go into Rasputitsa in a very good condition."
Would be great if he is eventually dead , but I swear the internet will say he has the plague at some point and he’ll be fine .
Hope he burns in hell for all eternity. I don’t drink but been I would raise a glass to celebrate when he bites the dust
He doubts it. Filing under too good to be true unless they hear more.
And here's your answer directly
"Todays muses is spured on by a couple of questions from Nick.
But let us start with some news from Physics.
It seems like we live in a simulation after all.
There is no other way to explain todays biggest news.
Elon Musk want to pay 1 billion USD for Wikipedia to change its name to Dickipedia for a year.
In an alternate universe Putin had a heart attack and his heart stopped.
At least according to General SVR, the source that brought us the news that Putin have rectal cancer, and the news that Putin had fallen on the stairs in his home, broken his coccyx, and then promptly shat himself while being uncontious.
Obviously the highly esteemed English high street newspapers are all over it.
And with that I mean the Daily Fail.
We are not putting any energy on verifying that.
Now for something that actually happened.
Earlier today I described The Battle of the Terrakon.
A few sources online over-reacted a bit and declared that Ukraine had lost this vital part of industrial waste.
So, I guess it behoves me to explain what happened since I was the one "Effing up".
In other words, I got complacent, and Russia did something truly unexpected.
They did a correctly done combined arms attack.
First attack
This was performed with 12 tanks and 12 BTR/BMPs (hard to say after they have blown up) and 500 soldiers.
The soldiers was probably VDV or something related since they performed the attack fairly well and coordinated.
Well, except for the BMP that drove over the infantry it just had dropped...
Second attack
While the armour was dispatched and the infantry had started to run towards the Terrakon an even larger Unit came crashing out of the woods.
This consisted of 24 tanks and 24 BMP/BRTs and 700 soldiers.
At exactly this point a coordinated aerial attack involving 5 SU-25s and 4 Mi-24s happened and the artillery on Terrakon intensified significantly in severity.
The planes dropped 1000kg glide bombs that did a lot of damage.
Then came suicide drones.
This put the existing Ukrainian artillery at the breaking point as they struggled to handle 2 armoured attacks, and 2 infantry attacks at the same time, whipping back and forth from HE and Armour piercing to cluster munition, and back, and forth...
To say that they worked like overworked and overwhipped donkeys is to put it mildly.
Obiously the tanks was firing point blank on the Terrakon in the end before the artillery took them out, or drove them away.
In the end the artillery had to use cluster munition on the Terrakon itself to drive away the climbing Russians before they overtook the place.
It was close, it was very close.
It would be correct to say that it was in the grey zone for about two hours before reinforcements arrived as 4 CVs drove up the backside ramp.
What they found was carnage.
There was never a lot of soldiers up there, mostly spotters, mortarmen and machine gunners.
Still, they only found 5 wounded huddling in a bunker.
Technically we held on, but...
I am almost certain that I met Surovikin in battle for the first time, instead of the usual moroonic Russian generals that I have gotten used to belt the **** out of.
I had gotten complacent.
Unless there are two generals in Russia that have the skillset, and one being totally unknown up to this point, then it was Surovikin.
The plan was gruesome, effective and very well coordinated, and the inclusion of the airforce was spot on, if those Mi-24s had succeeded with offloading those soldiers Russia would have won.
So, during the night I flew out, thanked the artillery boys profusely, added 50 percent more artillery to that section from the reserve.
Increased the rate of firing missions into the rear, and made a rapid response team that can reinforce Terrakon quickly.
I also brought an air defence unit forward a bit.
The main problem was not only that I was complacent, as it happened I was also coordinating several offensive strikes in the area, and I over-concentrated on those.
I should also have kicked Tank Girl in the ass when it happened and asked for help.
In other words, I got overwhelmed.
Only by being honest about your failures you can improve and not make the same mistakes again.
Anyway, regardless of what people say, it is solidly back in green for now, and I will do my best to give Surovikin a belting the next time he shows up.
Oleksandr just laughed and said, "welcome to my world, I deal with that **** all the time".
And that is true, and one of the reasons why his angle of attack goes so slow.
He nowadays have a good opponent."
"Todays muses is spured on by a couple of questions from Nick.
But let us start with some news from Physics.
It seems like we live in a simulation after all.
There is no other way to explain todays biggest news.
Elon Musk want to pay 1 billion USD for Wikipedia to change its name to Dickipedia for a year.
In an alternate universe Putin had a heart attack and his heart stopped.
At least according to General SVR, the source that brought us the news that Putin have rectal cancer, and the news that Putin had fallen on the stairs in his home, broken his coccyx, and then promptly shat himself while being uncontious.
Obviously the highly esteemed English high street newspapers are all over it.
And with that I mean the Daily Fail.
We are not putting any energy on verifying that.
Now for something that actually happened.
Earlier today I described The Battle of the Terrakon.
A few sources online over-reacted a bit and declared that Ukraine had lost this vital part of industrial waste.
So, I guess it behoves me to explain what happened since I was the one "Effing up".
In other words, I got complacent, and Russia did something truly unexpected.
They did a correctly done combined arms attack.
First attack
This was performed with 12 tanks and 12 BTR/BMPs (hard to say after they have blown up) and 500 soldiers.
The soldiers was probably VDV or something related since they performed the attack fairly well and coordinated.
Well, except for the BMP that drove over the infantry it just had dropped...
Second attack
While the armour was dispatched and the infantry had started to run towards the Terrakon an even larger Unit came crashing out of the woods.
This consisted of 24 tanks and 24 BMP/BRTs and 700 soldiers.
At exactly this point a coordinated aerial attack involving 5 SU-25s and 4 Mi-24s happened and the artillery on Terrakon intensified significantly in severity.
The planes dropped 1000kg glide bombs that did a lot of damage.
Then came suicide drones.
This put the existing Ukrainian artillery at the breaking point as they struggled to handle 2 armoured attacks, and 2 infantry attacks at the same time, whipping back and forth from HE and Armour piercing to cluster munition, and back, and forth...
To say that they worked like overworked and overwhipped donkeys is to put it mildly.
Obiously the tanks was firing point blank on the Terrakon in the end before the artillery took them out, or drove them away.
In the end the artillery had to use cluster munition on the Terrakon itself to drive away the climbing Russians before they overtook the place.
It was close, it was very close.
It would be correct to say that it was in the grey zone for about two hours before reinforcements arrived as 4 CVs drove up the backside ramp.
What they found was carnage.
There was never a lot of soldiers up there, mostly spotters, mortarmen and machine gunners.
Still, they only found 5 wounded huddling in a bunker.
Technically we held on, but...
I am almost certain that I met Surovikin in battle for the first time, instead of the usual moroonic Russian generals that I have gotten used to belt the **** out of.
I had gotten complacent.
Unless there are two generals in Russia that have the skillset, and one being totally unknown up to this point, then it was Surovikin.
The plan was gruesome, effective and very well coordinated, and the inclusion of the airforce was spot on, if those Mi-24s had succeeded with offloading those soldiers Russia would have won.
So, during the night I flew out, thanked the artillery boys profusely, added 50 percent more artillery to that section from the reserve.
Increased the rate of firing missions into the rear, and made a rapid response team that can reinforce Terrakon quickly.
I also brought an air defence unit forward a bit.
The main problem was not only that I was complacent, as it happened I was also coordinating several offensive strikes in the area, and I over-concentrated on those.
I should also have kicked Tank Girl in the ass when it happened and asked for help.
In other words, I got overwhelmed.
Only by being honest about your failures you can improve and not make the same mistakes again.
Anyway, regardless of what people say, it is solidly back in green for now, and I will do my best to give Surovikin a belting the next time he shows up.
Oleksandr just laughed and said, "welcome to my world, I deal with that **** all the time".
And that is true, and one of the reasons why his angle of attack goes so slow.
He nowadays have a good opponent."
Scrote
Well-known member
I saw a doctored Daily Express article making this claim earlier but a quick check on the Express site searching on the Journalist name (Tim McNulty) brought nothing back.
Pretty sure it's just someone having a bit of 'fun'.
On propaganda
"Russia is spreading a video-clip claiming that the Terrakon has been taken all over Social media.
The clip shows a flag in an industrial wasteland, and is purported to be from the top of Terrakon.
It is not.
It is taken in the wastefield between the Coking-plant and Terrakon.
The video-clip is below, and the image was kindly supplied by RT that promtly ****ed up the propaganda attempt...
"
IgorGirkin on X: "Avdiivka, situation https://t.co/jQABavFaCW" / X (twitter.com)
"Russia is spreading a video-clip claiming that the Terrakon has been taken all over Social media.
The clip shows a flag in an industrial wasteland, and is purported to be from the top of Terrakon.
It is not.
It is taken in the wastefield between the Coking-plant and Terrakon.
The video-clip is below, and the image was kindly supplied by RT that promtly ****ed up the propaganda attempt...
"IgorGirkin on X: "Avdiivka, situation https://t.co/jQABavFaCW" / X (twitter.com)
afcb_acklam
Well-known member
konstantin just seen a "rumour" live on his stream, won't say wot it is. could be rubbish.....
Fattyfoggon
Well-known member
Lol that's a bit cryptic did he give any clues....
afcb_acklam
Well-known member
WeeGord
Well-known member
Come on you can't leave us in suspense!
afcb_acklam
Well-known member
I don't know anyfink!!! He wouldnt say!
WeeGord
Well-known member
Looking on Twitter seems to be another rumour of a dead Putin and a coup taking place.
I'll take it with the usual massive dose of salt, though we can hope!
Doubtful. But we live in hope.
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Ukraine war: Russia executing own retreating soldiers, US says
The White House says heavy losses and poor morale are leading to mutinies in some units.
www.bbc.com
Updates from the front
"Luhansk
Here things are rapidly quieting down from the Russians as they are moving large units away from the Kupyansk sector down to Avdivka. (I will get back to that).
This means that Zyrskiy can take advantage and push home his little offensive and the perhaps even flatten out things a bit near Kreminna before Rasputitsa.
He also now have spare troops available for Bakhmut and Avdivka.
Bakhmut
There was two offensive axises here from Kliichivka.
One towards Odraivka and the other towards Mykolaivka Druha.
According to reports from the commander the offensives was unusually easy and the assigned fields was taken in record time.
He mentioned the lack of reinforcements now having a significant effect.
And, he also mentioned Russia using no artillery to stop their advancement.
Tokmakish
UAF now pushing hard towards Kopani again, this time from the North where they're trying to take Nestarianka.
They took the field yesterday in front of Nestarianka, and today pushing down the field west of the Village since that would give them the village in a pocket.
And if Nestarianka falls they can push to Myrne and attack Kopani directly from the North.
This attack was enabled by the lack of Russian reinforcements in the area.
Something that we are seeing everywhere now.
I will get to why in the end.
Kherson
The new crossing towards Pidstepne is going very well so far.
For two days running the Marines and Infantry have taken control of areas between the river bank and the road.
The grey zone is far larger than the maps give at hand.
Note that Russian aviation is bombing Pidstepne itself in an attempt to take back the village from the forces that took it.
The village was almost undefended, so it is not a large Ukrainian group holding it, hence it still being "grey".
Russia resorting to using aerial bombs speaks volumes of the lack of troops in the area.
Remember that most of their available troops are in pitched battle in the Poima direction and over at Oleshky.
Yesterdays advance was towards the East from the initial landing spot, and it is this time an uphill battle with the 43 meter line beaing breached.
The goal is to take this hill with it's escarpment of 103-114 meters towards the river, with that cleared it would be much harder for the Russian artillery to hold back a larger transfer of soldiers.
As such this is by far the most serious landing to date.
Avdivka
I spent the night and morning in the forward command as we planned for new trenches on the north side so that we can hold Russia back behind the railway line.
Weirdly enough the Russians are also digging in now on the North along the entire bulge.
The Russian trench network is rather massive in a Surovikin Line style, complete with oodles of ineffective dragon's teeth.
To the North the bulk of the Russian forces are spent, and the few attack they have done has mainly been smaller groups with just one or two BMPs.
It had the feeling of more being an attempt to keep us occupied while they dig like maniacs on their trences, and to disturb us while we dig ours.
We definitely have the upper hand now on the artillery side on the Northern flank, and we also have a sollid armour advantage, this is giving opportunities for later on if the weather holds a bit.
What is even more interesting is that Russia for now does not seem interested in reinforcing any more on this side.
It is a bit curious, it is after all not like we do not have resources around there to do a counter-attack or two.
It is in the South that things are moving from tough to tougher.
It was here that I intended to counter-attack them, but all of those reallocated troops from Luhansk are moving here, or have already arrived.
This is now where we expect the next big push.
Those forces brought more equipment, artillery, and even some bridging equipment.
The next few days will be interesting I think, it will be when the battle of Avdivka is won, or lost.
Heck, even the entire war can be won here, let me explain.
Russia is moving in as much forces as they have used up in total in Avdivka in the last few weeks.
Ie., they are moving in their entire battle capable and offensive capable remaining army, and all of the associated gear.
If we can break them here, then they will be without offensive units for quite some time.
And without a large portion of their more modern stuff for a very long time.
And here is my point, even if we in the end have to step back from Avdivka we will have good opportunities to hold the new line that is already prepared.
Yes, Avdivka is a pain in the **** for Russia, but we have more pains in the **** of Russia in other spots like in Marinka, and we are on the offensive in pretty much every other sector.
So, it would for us be a minor loss, and almost no gain for Russia really.
It would also be the definition of a pyrrhiv victory, the last and final horay of the falling empire.
Because their fixation on Avdivka has been highly detrimental for their war effort in ALL other sectors, Luhansk, Bakhmut, Marinka, Tokmakish, Kherson... and a few bits and bobs in between.
They are being pushed back ever so slowly everywhere, to gain a few square kilometres near Donetsk City.
And it is not even securing Donetsk City due to us holding Vuhledar to Marinka line, a far better way to offend the Donetskians.
That being said, I enjoy being a rectal pain of the Russians, and so does every single Ukrainian, so holding on to Avdivka is a priority since the Russians are doing such a great job at demilitarising themselves against it.
So, holding is for now the main priority.
Conclusion
Russia is currently losing the war due to Avdivka.
In Tokmakish Russian defence is buckling due to lack of reinforcements.
In Kherson they are very near to being under a full-scale invasion due to lack of reinforcements."
.
"Luhansk
Here things are rapidly quieting down from the Russians as they are moving large units away from the Kupyansk sector down to Avdivka. (I will get back to that).
This means that Zyrskiy can take advantage and push home his little offensive and the perhaps even flatten out things a bit near Kreminna before Rasputitsa.
He also now have spare troops available for Bakhmut and Avdivka.
Bakhmut
There was two offensive axises here from Kliichivka.
One towards Odraivka and the other towards Mykolaivka Druha.
According to reports from the commander the offensives was unusually easy and the assigned fields was taken in record time.
He mentioned the lack of reinforcements now having a significant effect.
And, he also mentioned Russia using no artillery to stop their advancement.
Tokmakish
UAF now pushing hard towards Kopani again, this time from the North where they're trying to take Nestarianka.
They took the field yesterday in front of Nestarianka, and today pushing down the field west of the Village since that would give them the village in a pocket.
And if Nestarianka falls they can push to Myrne and attack Kopani directly from the North.
This attack was enabled by the lack of Russian reinforcements in the area.
Something that we are seeing everywhere now.
I will get to why in the end.
Kherson
The new crossing towards Pidstepne is going very well so far.
For two days running the Marines and Infantry have taken control of areas between the river bank and the road.
The grey zone is far larger than the maps give at hand.
Note that Russian aviation is bombing Pidstepne itself in an attempt to take back the village from the forces that took it.
The village was almost undefended, so it is not a large Ukrainian group holding it, hence it still being "grey".
Russia resorting to using aerial bombs speaks volumes of the lack of troops in the area.
Remember that most of their available troops are in pitched battle in the Poima direction and over at Oleshky.
Yesterdays advance was towards the East from the initial landing spot, and it is this time an uphill battle with the 43 meter line beaing breached.
The goal is to take this hill with it's escarpment of 103-114 meters towards the river, with that cleared it would be much harder for the Russian artillery to hold back a larger transfer of soldiers.
As such this is by far the most serious landing to date.
Avdivka
I spent the night and morning in the forward command as we planned for new trenches on the north side so that we can hold Russia back behind the railway line.
Weirdly enough the Russians are also digging in now on the North along the entire bulge.
The Russian trench network is rather massive in a Surovikin Line style, complete with oodles of ineffective dragon's teeth.
To the North the bulk of the Russian forces are spent, and the few attack they have done has mainly been smaller groups with just one or two BMPs.
It had the feeling of more being an attempt to keep us occupied while they dig like maniacs on their trences, and to disturb us while we dig ours.
We definitely have the upper hand now on the artillery side on the Northern flank, and we also have a sollid armour advantage, this is giving opportunities for later on if the weather holds a bit.
What is even more interesting is that Russia for now does not seem interested in reinforcing any more on this side.
It is a bit curious, it is after all not like we do not have resources around there to do a counter-attack or two.
It is in the South that things are moving from tough to tougher.
It was here that I intended to counter-attack them, but all of those reallocated troops from Luhansk are moving here, or have already arrived.
This is now where we expect the next big push.
Those forces brought more equipment, artillery, and even some bridging equipment.
The next few days will be interesting I think, it will be when the battle of Avdivka is won, or lost.
Heck, even the entire war can be won here, let me explain.
Russia is moving in as much forces as they have used up in total in Avdivka in the last few weeks.
Ie., they are moving in their entire battle capable and offensive capable remaining army, and all of the associated gear.
If we can break them here, then they will be without offensive units for quite some time.
And without a large portion of their more modern stuff for a very long time.
And here is my point, even if we in the end have to step back from Avdivka we will have good opportunities to hold the new line that is already prepared.
Yes, Avdivka is a pain in the **** for Russia, but we have more pains in the **** of Russia in other spots like in Marinka, and we are on the offensive in pretty much every other sector.
So, it would for us be a minor loss, and almost no gain for Russia really.
It would also be the definition of a pyrrhiv victory, the last and final horay of the falling empire.
Because their fixation on Avdivka has been highly detrimental for their war effort in ALL other sectors, Luhansk, Bakhmut, Marinka, Tokmakish, Kherson... and a few bits and bobs in between.
They are being pushed back ever so slowly everywhere, to gain a few square kilometres near Donetsk City.
And it is not even securing Donetsk City due to us holding Vuhledar to Marinka line, a far better way to offend the Donetskians.
That being said, I enjoy being a rectal pain of the Russians, and so does every single Ukrainian, so holding on to Avdivka is a priority since the Russians are doing such a great job at demilitarising themselves against it.
So, holding is for now the main priority.
Conclusion
Russia is currently losing the war due to Avdivka.
In Tokmakish Russian defence is buckling due to lack of reinforcements.
In Kherson they are very near to being under a full-scale invasion due to lack of reinforcements."
.
Since not much has changed really this is just a small update.
"Luhansk
Due to the sudden lack of of at least somewhat competent Russians there is now a small Ukrainian offensive in the Kreminna direction.
It is going quite well and Zyrskiy is almost unbearably pleased with himself.
He is very happy that he does not need to bother overly with Avdivka, and I fully expect him to take all the credit for it later on (if I am successfull).
But, he is sending reinforcements all the time, and more shells, so I am not mad at him.
Bakhmut
Here they are finding small cracks all over the place, and I am honestly losing track of the directions that they are pushing into each day.
Small pushes, but very definite pushes.
There should soon be a map update issues where a nice chunk of land is turned from grey to green/blue (depending on map).
Avdivka North
Russia is trying to emplace their dragons teeth, but we now have a sport in blowing up the crane trucks/lorries that they use for that, leaving piles of unplaced concrete pyramids everywhere.
Otherwise they do smaller 150 men unvehicled attacks to keep us on our toes, fairly ineffective stuff.
They tried to take control of a section of the railway yesterday and in the morning, but that did not work out well for them.
Avdivka Center
During the night we did a small counter attack in the Pisky direction again.
It widened the breach somewhat, but we did not for now go deeper.
Avdivka South
Russia has tried a few meatwaves of around 500 men each with low numbers of equipment, on average 5 tanks and 5 BMP/BTRs was used, but they got turned around fairly quickly.
Russia gained no ground during these.
We continue to grind in this direction from all three sides of the bulge.
Right now a counter-offensive is in the air, but it all depends on the weather gods.
Avdivka Conclusion
I have asked that everyone stop sending reinforcements my way.
I have way more than needed, and it is now an issue of where to even park them in the deep rear.
Problem is also that the new arrivals are somewhat mottled since people sent what they could spare, with a heavy weight towards Infantry.
I think I will keap the drone battalions, artillery brigade and send most of the rest back.
Tank Girl sent a couple of tank battalions from 2nd TAG, and they are a boon for a counter attack and will be kept, and with them came a few GRADs that will come in handy in case the weather gods are happy.
Marinka/Vuhledarish
The Russians here are now rather far and few between, so she is having lazy days.
She is itching to push forward, but to conserve shells she is for the moment sitting on her butt mumbling about "I could take that, and that..."
The advantage of this is that she has time to train her colonel quite a bit, and that she is taking a 6 hours stint running Avdivka so I can sleep.
Tokmakish
The push towards Kopani is still a thing, and a piece here and there is still falling into Oleksandrs hands, but he is also taking it slow to conserve shells for Avdivka and Kherson.
Kherson
From the Oleshky bridgehead the Ukrainians have moved forward doubling the area held, they are now using regular infantry that is being shipped over each night.
The goal here is to take the entire Island into Green, and the start operations to encircle Oleshky itself.
Pidstepne is still being held, and the attack near Krynky is also still a thing.
The advance is slow and steady uphill near Pidstepne due to the light infantry units.
More and more it is infantry doing clearing now instead of the Marine Brigade.
This is freeing the Marines to do more landfalls to expand the length of the southern river bank that is under Ukrainian control.
Now Ukraine control the entire island/bank-chain from Korsunka down to the ocean.
If I was the Russian general staff and my enemy had done this feat I would A) **** myself, and B) send a sizeable chunk of my army to do something rather definite about it.
Since boats and barges can move any attack will pretty much be out of the blue for the Russians from now on.
This is making it incredibly hard for them to put up resistance against an offensive in advance, and before reinforcements arrive, the Ukrainians will have landed and moved on inwards.
So far Russia has not moved in any new units of a size that could cripple the ongoing Invasion of Kherson.
If it stays that way for about 10 more days it will become a runaway train for them and even small ships could be used during the night to offload larger and heavier units in one of the river ports.
From then on it would be a definite downhill struggle.
Conclusion
In our morning call we discussed that the Russians are now so critically understaffed along the entire frontline, except in Avdivka and Tokmakish, that we could literally pick and spot and break through.
For now Avdivka and Kherson will take precedence, but if we can stop the second wave of Russians that arrived from Luhansk, then there will be pain dealt across the entire line, Rasputitsa or no Rasputitsa.
And unless Russia receives a miracle, winter campaign will be hell for them."
"Luhansk
Due to the sudden lack of of at least somewhat competent Russians there is now a small Ukrainian offensive in the Kreminna direction.
It is going quite well and Zyrskiy is almost unbearably pleased with himself.
He is very happy that he does not need to bother overly with Avdivka, and I fully expect him to take all the credit for it later on (if I am successfull).
But, he is sending reinforcements all the time, and more shells, so I am not mad at him.
Bakhmut
Here they are finding small cracks all over the place, and I am honestly losing track of the directions that they are pushing into each day.
Small pushes, but very definite pushes.
There should soon be a map update issues where a nice chunk of land is turned from grey to green/blue (depending on map).
Avdivka North
Russia is trying to emplace their dragons teeth, but we now have a sport in blowing up the crane trucks/lorries that they use for that, leaving piles of unplaced concrete pyramids everywhere.
Otherwise they do smaller 150 men unvehicled attacks to keep us on our toes, fairly ineffective stuff.
They tried to take control of a section of the railway yesterday and in the morning, but that did not work out well for them.
Avdivka Center
During the night we did a small counter attack in the Pisky direction again.
It widened the breach somewhat, but we did not for now go deeper.
Avdivka South
Russia has tried a few meatwaves of around 500 men each with low numbers of equipment, on average 5 tanks and 5 BMP/BTRs was used, but they got turned around fairly quickly.
Russia gained no ground during these.
We continue to grind in this direction from all three sides of the bulge.
Right now a counter-offensive is in the air, but it all depends on the weather gods.
Avdivka Conclusion
I have asked that everyone stop sending reinforcements my way.
I have way more than needed, and it is now an issue of where to even park them in the deep rear.
Problem is also that the new arrivals are somewhat mottled since people sent what they could spare, with a heavy weight towards Infantry.
I think I will keap the drone battalions, artillery brigade and send most of the rest back.
Tank Girl sent a couple of tank battalions from 2nd TAG, and they are a boon for a counter attack and will be kept, and with them came a few GRADs that will come in handy in case the weather gods are happy.
Marinka/Vuhledarish
The Russians here are now rather far and few between, so she is having lazy days.
She is itching to push forward, but to conserve shells she is for the moment sitting on her butt mumbling about "I could take that, and that..."
The advantage of this is that she has time to train her colonel quite a bit, and that she is taking a 6 hours stint running Avdivka so I can sleep.
Tokmakish
The push towards Kopani is still a thing, and a piece here and there is still falling into Oleksandrs hands, but he is also taking it slow to conserve shells for Avdivka and Kherson.
Kherson
From the Oleshky bridgehead the Ukrainians have moved forward doubling the area held, they are now using regular infantry that is being shipped over each night.
The goal here is to take the entire Island into Green, and the start operations to encircle Oleshky itself.
Pidstepne is still being held, and the attack near Krynky is also still a thing.
The advance is slow and steady uphill near Pidstepne due to the light infantry units.
More and more it is infantry doing clearing now instead of the Marine Brigade.
This is freeing the Marines to do more landfalls to expand the length of the southern river bank that is under Ukrainian control.
Now Ukraine control the entire island/bank-chain from Korsunka down to the ocean.
If I was the Russian general staff and my enemy had done this feat I would A) **** myself, and B) send a sizeable chunk of my army to do something rather definite about it.
Since boats and barges can move any attack will pretty much be out of the blue for the Russians from now on.
This is making it incredibly hard for them to put up resistance against an offensive in advance, and before reinforcements arrive, the Ukrainians will have landed and moved on inwards.
So far Russia has not moved in any new units of a size that could cripple the ongoing Invasion of Kherson.
If it stays that way for about 10 more days it will become a runaway train for them and even small ships could be used during the night to offload larger and heavier units in one of the river ports.
From then on it would be a definite downhill struggle.
Conclusion
In our morning call we discussed that the Russians are now so critically understaffed along the entire frontline, except in Avdivka and Tokmakish, that we could literally pick and spot and break through.
For now Avdivka and Kherson will take precedence, but if we can stop the second wave of Russians that arrived from Luhansk, then there will be pain dealt across the entire line, Rasputitsa or no Rasputitsa.
And unless Russia receives a miracle, winter campaign will be hell for them."